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A normalizing quarter

Now that all the public companies have released their earnings, we can take a look a slot ship share trends.  Total shipments into North America decreased 11% YoY to approximately 16k in 4Q10 from an estimated 18k in 4Q09.  We estimate that a total of 63k units were shipped in NA in 2010 compared to an estimated 71k units in 2009.  Replacements increased an estimated 3% YoY in 2010 to 47k units from approximately 45.5k units in 2009.

  • We estimate that new and expansion units decreased almost 40% YoY to 3.9k from 6.3k in 4Q09
  • Replacements in the quarter were about 12.4k, up 4% YoY and up from roughly 10.0k replacements shipped in 3Q10

Going forward, we think ship share for IGT and BYI will likely rise throughout the year while WMS and Konami will fall slightly.

Slot Ship Shares

  • IGT:  28% in 4Q up 1% from last quarter and down from 29% in 4Q09.  For 2010, IGT’s share dropped to 27% from 34% in 2009.
  • WMS:  24%, up 1% from 3Q share and flat with their 4Q09 ship share.  For 2010, WMS’s ship share was 25% compared to 22% in 2009.
  • BYI:  14% in 4Q2010 - flat sequentially and down 400bps YoY.  In 2010, BYI’s ship share fell 3% to 15%.
  • ALL:  2H2010 results were at 12%, flat YoY.  Based on company commentary on the earnings call last night, we believe that their 4Q2010 share was 13%, up from 3Q share of 11%.
  • Konami: 13% in 4Q, down from 16% in 3Q2010 and up 2% from their 4Q09 shipshare of 11%.  In 2010, Konami’s ship share stood at 13% compared to 10% in 2009

The chart below summarizes slot ship share trends:

4Q SLOT SHIP SHARE UPDATE - ship