US “Vacation Deficit” Is Shrinking

07/28/22 10:20AM EDT

Below is an excerpt from a complimentary research note by our Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analysts Todd Jordan and Sean Jenkins. For more GLL research, check out Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Pro.

US “Vacation Deficit” Is Shrinking - 2022 07 28 10 15 26

Per Allianz’s recent survey, the US “vacation deficit” is shrinking, and rapidly so. 

What the heck is a vacation deficit?  It is defined as the percentage of Americans who say an annual vacation is important to them but are not confident they will take one this year.

The smaller the deficit, the greater the share of Americans who feel they are able to execute on their hopes to take vacation and utilize PTO.  In Allianz’s 12yr survey, the reading has only been lower one time and at 19% in ’22, the US traveler is trending towards new lows in the survey. 

It’s all anecdotal and survey based, but this data jives with what we’re seeing in real time (Thursday – Sunday RevPAR) and company commentary around leisure and other forms of travel kicking into gear. 

We could chalk all this up to pent up demand and a reflection of the lagged implication of cyclical factors (strong GDP and wealth effects from prior years), but a lot of our work from earlier this year suggests there’s a real secular angle for leisure travel in the US. 

For more insights, see our recent Paradigm Shift in Travel & Leisure presentation. 

US “Vacation Deficit” Is Shrinking - bvv

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