Below is a chart and excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro analyst Ryan Ricci.
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That is a picture of the 2000, 2008, and current crash only the time series is showing every crash from peak to trough. This is for everyone to have a comparison of how long we have been within the current crash (blue line). Let’s use numbers though, in terms of duration, our current crash has only lasted ~20% as long as 2000 and ~37% as long as 2008. Next, the numbers on the chart show how large the bounces and drops were within each market cycle. For 2000 the average up move was +15% and the average down move was -18%. For 2008 the average up move was +12% and the average down move was -19%. For the current market the average up move is +9% and the average down move is -12%. The largest bear market bounce in our current market is +11%, in 2008 +23%, and in 2000 +21%. Our current max bear market bounce (+11%) is lower than the average bounces in 2000 and 2008! Can you imagine all the talking heads in this country when there is a +23% bear market bounce? |
