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TALES OF THE TAPE: MCD, TXRH, PZZA, DPZ, WEN, PEET, CHUX, DIN, KKD, SONC, CMG, JACK, CBOU, YUM

Notable news items/price action over the past twenty four hours.

  • MCD is raising prices by 0.8% in Germany on higher raw material costs, Bild reported. 
  • TXRH reported EPS of $0.14 versus expectations of $0.16.  FY11 guidance is for EPS to grow by 10% versus prior guidance of up 5-15%.  10% EPS growth implies EPS of $0.88 versus consensus of $0.94.  Comps came in at 3.1% versus expectations of 2.9% and guidance for FY11 comps is 3.5%. 
  • TXRH also declared an 8 cent dividend.
  • PZZA reported 4Q results yesterday after the close.  System comps came in at 0.7% versus the street's expectation of 0.5% and EPS came in at $0.51 versus consensus of $0.48.  EPS guidance of $2.00-$2.12 was reaffirmed versus consensus of $2.07 as the company believes favorable impact of early year sales will substantially mitigate the unfavorable impact of currently projected commodity cost increases throughout the remainder of the year.
  • DPZ is launching a new campaign promoting a new chicken menu.  The company is replacing Domino’s Chicken Kickers with a boneless chicken option.  Its chicken wing recipe is also changing.
  • Restaurant stocks in general declined steeply yesterday on strong volume. 
  • WEN, PEET, and CHUX were the only three stocks to gain on strong volume.  WEN and PEET are two names I have been vocal on as of late.  I see PEET as a viable target for SBUX, as I have written about at length over the past couple of weeks.  WEN is a classic turnaround story and I saw the recent Analyst Day (and announcement that the firm is selling Arby’s) as an inflection point for this company (WEN: FOCUSED, REAL & UNDERVALUED, 1/28/11).
  • DIN declined on strong volume, as did CAKE, CPKI, CBRL, and many other casual dining stocks. 
  • In QSR, KKD, SONC, CMG, JACK, CBOU and YUM were among the notable decliners. 

TALES OF THE TAPE: MCD, TXRH, PZZA, DPZ, WEN, PEET, CHUX, DIN, KKD, SONC, CMG, JACK, CBOU, YUM - stocks 223

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


PNK YOUTUBE

In preparation for PNK's Q4 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the pertinent forward looking commentary from PNK’s Q3 earnings call.

 


YOUTUBE

  • "And so I would caution a little bit that as we enter these next few months of the fourth quarter, last year was a tough winter for us, Belterra in particular had a tough time and St. Louis to a lesser extent. I would caution that we not go crazy with 4Q estimates based on 3Q performance. Rather you can count on us to be very disciplined in our focus on revenue management and cost reductions to take advantage of the revenue opportunity that we do have in a very cold quarter.”
  • “We are certainly not done looking for additional efficiencies at corporate end throughout the company. In the phase of a challenging current economic climate, our ability to increase revenue is somewhat limited, although we are finding pockets of growth i.e. New Orleans – the New Orleans market in the last quarter.”
  • “And speaking of Baton Rouge, we do have about $340 million of cash construction cost remaining there. The vast majority of which will occur in the 2011 period.”
  • [Baton Rouge investment] “We believe that the second 100 million has a very healthy return and that’s how we thought about it. We looked at what the base was that we are going to spend and what you could really get for that base and then by adding a parking garage and it’s just common sense that your first 100 rooms are your most expensive rooms because of the infrastructure you got put in place. And then adding the second 100 rooms, we believe our ability to reach a market of about a two hour drive time around Baton Rouge that it was going to be a return that and Joe I am not going to be specific on the number that we targeted but we believe was favorable to shareholders.”
  • [Belterra] “I think absolutely what you are seeing is sustainable. And what you are not seeing is, we starting to put in place revenue drivers that will add to that property. But across the board I’ll tell you that we feel good about the way all of our team and all of our operators are making good decisions about the right use of resources.”
  • [L’Auberge] “We’re in the early stages of our hotel yield management today.”
  • [River City] “We have been exceeding people’s expectations when they visit that facility and we still believe we’re in the early stages of getting settled into River City.”
  • [Seasonality] “The properties we have in Reno, obviously Belterra, and our St. Louis segment, we’ve got four properties in particular that are highly subject to difficult weather conditions. That said we also saw a virtually unprecedented monster storm come through the upper Midwest earlier this week that provides some evidence as to potential impact at one or more of those properties in the fourth and first quarters.”
  • [Reduction of marketing expenses] “We would say we are in the second maybe or top of the third inning.”
  • “I mean we have Atlantic City that is an asset for sale right now and hopefully, we are not going to have any further write down of Atlantic City but that’s all a possibility on what happens with Atlantic City.”

VFC: Hope and Luck

VFC front-loaded a lot of good ‘ol fashioned optimism. But you need a lot of Hope and Luck to get ’11 guidance. The risk/reward here looks flat out bad.


 

VFC isn’t the kind of company that tends to surprise us on the average EPS print. After all, it’s a $14bn portfolio of brands (about the same size as Gap) that spans just about every relevant category out there. In other words, the company realistically should not dramatically outperform the industry, because it IS the industry.

 

We understand the ‘quality of management’ factor. But  two days ago, if you’d have asked me what the probability is of VFC beating the quarter, AND taking up estimates to a level suggesting 10% sales AND EPS growth in 2011, I’d have said (and did say)…

 

“Even if they think they can do these numbers, there’s 87% of the year left to go. They do themselves no favors by doing this now.” That’s particularly the case due to VFC’s expectation for success in large part to a consumer and retailer-led price increase.

 

I sat here for two hours on this VFC model, and I legitimately cannot find a way to get above $7.00 for the year. I’m shaking out at about $6.45 (flat year/year).

 

Here’s what you’ve got to believe to get their numbers

  1. There has been only one year in VFC history where it printed 10% annual organic growth. That was 2006, where VFC benefitted from a healthy consumer, and solid organic growth from building out The North Face stores (which is a 2x gross-up in sales dollars from cost, to wholesale, to retail). In other words, '11 needs to be VFC's best year ever.
  2. The former algorithm from 2003-2008 was for hsd top line growth, split evenly between organic growth and acquisitions. There’s no mention of acquisitions now. That either means that the REAL expected organic growth is over the top of historical peak, or the company will come back with a deal and say ‘that’s included in our prior guidance.’  They’ve done it before, and the market was often split on sentiment.
  3. Levi’s remains rational in 2011. If VFC Jeanswear Coalition’s top competitor starts to buy market share, then there’s no way that VFC is hitting these numbers.
  4. The SIGMA looks awful. Check out the chart below. We show the past four quarters for Macy’s VFC, Wal-Mart and Home Depot – all companies that reported today. VFC not only is headed in an unhealthy place, but the yy comps starting quite difficult (ie squarely in ‘sweet spot’ for past three quarters. You've got to believe that they can turn this around -- and fast.

And lastly, I’ve got to point out something related to cost inflation that we published earlier today. It’s quite relevant here. There are three stages we think companies are (or are not and should be) concerned about cost inflation. Let’s go in order of simplicity.

 

1)  Control what you can control. The companies see the same tape we do and where prices are headed, and they plan accordingly with their own procurement. Focusing solely on this will blow them up.

2)  Workup a strategic plan as to how they think their supply chain partners will react when faced with a meaningful change in their cash flow.  I’m referring to how a brand like Lee, Wrangler and North Face react when price is altered by Levi’s or Columbia, respectively.

3)  In addition to the two preceding points, the most successful companies are planning for how a supply chain partner will look to squeeze when it’s hurt in other categories. For example…what happens if the ‘food inflation pass through’ is maxed out and Wal-Mart needs to face a food price increase at risk of losing additional traffic?

 

Why not push it through to more discretionary and highly fragmented categories like apparel and toys?

 

Go out and ask a CEO of a ‘basics’ apparel company if he has ever knowingly funded markdowns in fresh fruit. He’ll say no, and he’s not lying. He’s simply unaware.

 

VFC: Hope and Luck - compsigma


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Brazil: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain

Conclusion: The recent collection of hawkish monetary policy and prudent fiscal policy has Brazilian equities feeling the ill-effects of waning stimulus due to higher interest rates and budget cuts. In addition, we detail below how we are playing Global Stagflation from a Global Macro perspective.

 

Position: Short Brazilian Equities via the etf EWZ.

 

On Thursday, we shorted Brazilian equities in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio on the expectation that the Bovespa was indeed rallying to another intermediate-term lower-high. From a top-down perspective, a confluence of bearish factors has had us sour on Brazilian equities since early November:

 

Slowing Growth: The higher-frequency data in Brazil (Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence, Economic Activity Index, Trade Balance, and Industrial Production) has inflected negatively in Dec/Jan reporting.

 

Brazil: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain - 1

 

Accelerating Inflation: Even in the face of recent rate hikes and higher reserve requirements, the official IPCA National CPI reading accelerated +10bps to a 26-month high of +6% YoY in Jan. The unofficial, more sobering FGV IGP-M CPI reading accelerated to a 26-month high as well in Jan (+11.5% YoY).

 

Brazil: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain - 2

 

Recent news suggests Brazil may have to import crude oil to offset a mix-shift by consumers and producers away from ethanol consumption, where prices are becoming prohibitively expensive. Unfortunately, the proverbial “poison” will have to be picked: WTI crude oil prices accelerated to +17.3% YoY in Jan from +8.5% YoY in Dec.

 

Interconnected Risk is compounding: In what we consider a bullish long-term data point, the inexperienced President Rousseff won a major battle within the Lower House of the Brazilian Congress to increase the minimum wage to 545 reais – a +6.8% YoY increase. Opposing lawmakers had been calling for an increase to as high as 600 reais. The bill, which was passed by a vote of 361-120, now goes to the Senate floor for debate.

 

This decisive “win” helps Rousseff stay the course on her plan to cut spending by 50 billion reais ($30B) from the budget. This victory sets the stages for additional frugality, as over two-thirds of pension and welfare costs are indexed to the minimum wage. Every one-real increase in the minimum wage translates to a +300 million reais increase in public spending.

 

Rousseff, who has yet to detail where additional budget cuts will come from aside from “eliminating waste” and freezing government hires, appears to remain steadfast in her commitment to work with Central Bank President Alexandre Tombini and Finance Minister Guido Mantega to rein in inflation through a combination of tighter fiscal and monetary policy. As a result, Brazilian interest rate futures have been on the decline of late. Despite the prospect of less aggressive rate hikes, however, the outcome remains the same: less liquidity to perpetuate demand growth and chase stock prices higher.

 

While we are not in the camp that considers stock market performance to be indicative of a country’s long-term health, we do believe in its merits as an indicator of a country’s near-term growth/inflation trends. Both are going the wrong way for Brazil and are weighing on Brazilian equities. Also, the proactively predictable interconnected risk associated with MENA instability certainly doesn’t help either:

 

Brazil: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain - 3

 

The March Towards Global Stagflation:

 

While prudent fiscal and monetary policy is not a “risk” by definition, it is a bearish factor for near-term equity market performance. As we’ve seen for the past two years, global equity market performance has been in-part driven by loose monetary policy worldwide. Now, we’re seeing emerging markets get tagged as they rein in the laxity which has helped global growth advance to its current cyclical peak.

 

We maintain our belief that global growth (including in the US) topped out in 4Q10, as bearish factors combine to quell the current momentum of growth: global inflation accelerating, higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy globally, global credit risk rising, US consumption growth slowing, US housing deflating… the list continues on. Consensus' current bullish sentiment is supported by lofty global growth assumptions and elevated earnings forecasts which will likely be revised down from current estimates in the coming months.

 

Regarding our virtual investment positions specifically, we’ll continue to watch the US dollar like a hawk for cues on the direction of global inflation (we're currently short the US Dollar via the etf UUP). While supply/demand fundamentals have certainly contributed to the current elevated prices of many commodities, we’d be remiss to ignore the medium by which they are PRICED and traded in to determine our expectations of future PRICES.

 

As long as Bernanke, Geithner, and Obama continue to Burn the Buck, we see no reason for commodity prices to back off meaningfully. Don’t assume slowing global growth will lead to decelerating inflation; Global Stagflation is a definite possibility and, in that scenario, not even the “flows” will protect investor portfolios. We remain short Brazilian equities (EWJ), Indian equities (IFN), Japanese equities (EWJ), Emerging Market equities (EEM), US Treasuries (SHY), and US Consumer stocks (XLP, COH, VFC, MCD; recently closed/still bearish on: XLY, TGT, SAM, and JNY) in anticipation of this scenario playing out.

 

Darius Dale

Analyst


Early Look

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