• Immigration and Customs Enforcement asking 1K companies to verify their workers are legal
  • DPZ - up 2.78% on accelerating volume; EPS to be reported on 3/2
  • RRGB Company is scheduled to report Q4 earnings 17-Feb after the close. Bloomberg EPS $0.05 and Revenue $191.0M; Same-store sales - Company-owned Q4 +0.9%, Q1 +1.0% FY 2011 +1.1%
  • PEET reported Q4 EPS $0.48 ex-items vs Bloomberg $0.48 - Q4 Revenues $91.6M vs consensus $95.9M Guidance (Dec 2011): Reaffirms EPS $1.53-$1.60 vs consensus $1.59; Reaffirms revenues +8%-10% or $360.5-$367.19 vs consensus $370.5M
  • BBRG pro forma EPS $0.27 vs Reuters $0.25 Q4 total comparable restaurant sales increased 2.2%; BRIO comparable restaurant sales increased 4.7%; BRAVO! Comparable restaurant sales decreased 0.3% Guidance 2011: EPS $0.75-0.80 vs Bloomberg $0.80; revenues $365-370M vs Bloomberg $368.5M
  • PFCB up on strong volume, but it will be difficult to achieve both pricing and traffic growth in FY11
  • CAKE - retail Sales and Use Tax receipts data from California does not paint a pretty picture for restaurants with a high level of exposure to the Golden State.
  • SBUX/PEET/GMCR - the cost of Arabica coffee, the high-quality bean appreciated by espresso connoisseurs, has surged to a near 14-year high of $2.6675 a pound in New York.
  • MCD - Subway expanding in Finland, looking to overtake MacDonald's in terms of outlet numbers
  • SONC - Sonic to focus on food quality rather than price reductions post-recession - will be painful in the beginning, but the right move!
  • BJ’s founders to open fast-casual concept stacked to feature self-service ordering, customization at the table using IPADS.


Howard Penney

Managing Director



Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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