Below is a chart and excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro & Housing analyst Christian Drake
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The goal [for the Fed] is to annualize the (inflation) growth numbers, then slow walk macro fundamentals back so the changes become measured. In effect – and this is an oversimplification but I think its conceptually sufficient - reset to 2019 and attempt another run at controlled secular growth. None of that happens if they pivot before QT even really starts, before (mostly) fulfilling the promise of protracted tightening, before the price data prints protracted disinflation …. …. And before the profit cycle reckoning actually plays out. |
