FL/Sporting Goods: More or Less Volatility?

For all you watchers of the weekly footwear and apparel data that comes from NPD and Sportscan, you may be in for more volatility on earnings reports. Why? Two days ago Foot Locker told NPD that it needs to make a choice – sell a weekly data product to Wall Street WITHOUT Foot Locker participating, or simply pull all weekly data distribution to the Street.


The catalyst was Ken Hicks at Foot Locker realizing that NPD was having its cake and eating it too. With an analyst taking his forecast lower two weeks ago based in part on NPD data, it led management to question why they were being subject to increased weekly volatility and speculation by the Street.  Didn’t we get out of the weekly sales reporting game years ago? At the same time, FL became more aware than ever that NPD has been servicing the Street and the trade with the same data, for which FL is a large contributor.   Ultimately something has to give here, and it’s likely that the days of weekly data feeds to the Street are over.   


Now there are two notable items…


1)      Our sense is that monthly data will still be available. Monthly numbers in this space are actually quite accurate and smooth out the weekly gyrations that can be the result of a variety of factors (weather, promos, and product launches).  Plus the monthly data offers more specificity into products, brands, and channel performance. Weekly numbers in the past only reflect the specialty athletic channel.


2)      People are likely to pick up the phone and call Sportscan to subscribe to SSI’s footwear data, a similar product but one with its own limitations.  SSI is less accurate. Instead of reporting only the sales data provided by the retailers, SSI includes its own estimates for retailers absent from the sample.  This is similar to the process IRI uses with estimating Wal-Mart’s sales.  While SSI may now be the only solution, we point out that even the big brands like Nike don’t even use SSI’s footwear data. They use apparel, which is more accurate.


Brian P. McGough
Managing Director

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT | Live Q&A with Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Join us for this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more