MCD: US SALES SLOWDOWN IN JANUARY

MCD reported global sales of 5.3% which surpassed consensus expectations of 4.4%.  By region, it seems that the U.S. slowdown I have been anticipating for 2011 may be kicking off.  MCD beat the consensus in every region of the world but the USA.  As you know, I believe that MCD has issues in the USA that have not been fully addressed by management.  

 

Despite an easy -0.7% compare, MCD printed a 3.1%, which implies two-year average trends sequentially decelerated by 60 basis points.  On a calendar-adjusted basis, two-year average trends accelerated slightly (by 17.5 bps) from December’s disappointing result.  January’s result for the U.S. was significantly lower than the Street’s expectation of +4.4% for the U.S.

 

The decline in MCD's two-year average trends to 1.2% clearly puts a same-store sales decline of 2-3% in play for March 2011. 

 

MCD: US SALES SLOWDOWN IN JANUARY - mcd us jan

 

Europe saved the day for MCD, printing a +7.0% comp, which implies a 335 basis point sequential acceleration in two-year average trends from December.   On a calendar-adjusted basis, two-year average trends accelerated 412.5 basis points. 

 

MCD: US SALES SLOWDOWN IN JANUARY - mcd eu jan

 

APMEA results came in above my expectations and those of the Street.  Two-year average trends decelerated sequentially on a two-year average basis by 20 basis points.  On a calendar-adjusted basis, APMEA two-year average trends accelerated by 57.5 basis points. 

 

MCD: US SALES SLOWDOWN IN JANUARY - mcd apmea jan

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more