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We wouldn’t read too much into the first week’s numbers but they are not good.

The week before and the first few days of Chinese New Year (CNY) are usually slow.  We are hearing that overall market hold percentage may have been low and it certainly was at Wynn and MGM (possibly below 1% at both).  Macau was very crowded on Saturday and Sunday and that is likely to continue.  The strong CNY-related VIP play likely began in earnest on Sunday, which is not included in these numbers.

Our concern is that some analysts/investors may be expecting close to a HK$20bn month while we think HK$17-18bn is more likely even with strong CNY volumes this week.  MPEL continues to have the most upside relative to expectations, in our opinion.  Wynn’s market share should bounce back nicely.  We are hearing their numbers were extremely strong the last two days.