In this clip from The Macro Show on 5/19/22, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down the difference between Hedgeye’s Rate of Change oriented #process, and CNBC’s pro-cyclical (backward looking and piss poor) analysis.
“The consumer is in great shape 100% of the time when the cycle is ending… employment is the most lagging of the lagging indicators,” notes McCullough, highlighting the cyclical nature of CNBC and policymakers asserting that the American consumer is strong at this stage.
“This morning in the Early Look, I talked about the pro-cyclical reality that is ‘the consumer is in great shape.’ First of all, that is a statement about a level; it’s not a statement about the Rate of Change of the prior state. The Rate of Change is not an opinion, it’s a fact.”
“If you’re a pro-cyclical investor, you’re eventually effed. Because you don’t really know until you get hammered by a cycle, and then you start to learn that macro matters.”
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