SCI reported last week and increased adjusted earnings guidance by $0.50 at the midpoint. The raise is a result of the persistent need for funerals in light of ongoing mortality. Interesting and relevant to our purposes is that SCI management reported that COVID deaths make up a decreasing share of mortality and decedents are skewing younger. The company speculated that access to care may be a contributing factor.
We have already raised concerns that access to treatments may be contributing to DVA's death on census. Yet, managed care organizations like ANTM and HUM report little evidence that there is pent-up demand or increased levels of acuity. Of course, that is nearly impossible. People get sick before they die, in most cases.
It there some other trend masking elevated demands for advanced care? Have Provider Relief Funds played a role as providers used federal support to bridge the gap between contract price and actual care costs? Are MCOs positioning for what might be a tough negotiation with payers? All TBD for now but it would require a complete suspension of reality to believe demands for health care, especially for acute conditions, will not persist and put pressure on the MCOs.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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