In this clip from The Macro Show on 4/27/22, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough describes how Trending Volatility takes out bulls in #Quad4, putting downward pressure on the low-end of the Risk Range™ Signal for all equities.
“Not everyone understands what the ‘F-Bucket’ (VIX > 30) is, until they’re in it. When the VIX gets above 30, then goes to 31, 32, 33, 34… and doesn’t go down, you don’t get paid. That’s where bulls go to die.”
"The $VIX, in less than week, has gone from 19 to 33.5 on a closing basis… Once you get into the ‘F-Bucket’, the low-end of the Risk Range™ goes down fast for anything that is equity.
Today’s Chart of the Day from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s Early Look note: ‘Know Your Buckets Of Volatility’
KEITH MCCULLOUGH'S THREE BUCKETS OF VOLATILITY
- The Investable Bucket: VIX = 10-19 → "When anyone can make money long stocks."
- The Chop Bucket: VIX = 20-30 → "When you go back and forth in that bucket, you can make a lot of money as a trader because there's a lot of panic at the top end of the Hedgeye Risk Range™ Signal and complacency at the bottom end."
- The F#$k Bucket: VIX = > 30 → "When you're greater than 30 volatility and it stays there, that's trending volatility. That's where even some of the best investors die."
“Risk happens slowly, then all at once.” – McCullough
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