eye | Good Visibility For Quad 4 Slowdown
Pent-up Demand Looks Largely Depleted
Delays in care during the pandemic pushed a lot of patient volume to the sidelines and built a substantial backlog of care across most care types. Corrective vision care, eyeglasses and contact lenses were no exception. The recovery came with a return-to-trend plus a pent-up demand kicker. By our measure, pent-up demand has been largely depleted and sets up a multi-year headwind.
High Visibility for a Slowdown in Quad 4
Vision correction and eyeglasses do poorly in Quad 4. We've developed a forecast tool based on macro data series that shows 1Q22 is deteriorating rapidly. Quad 4 back tests as a tailwind for Health Care consumption. We are expecting a negative revision cycle leading to a stock that can trade back below its February lows, or 20%-30% lower from here.
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Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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