FOMC: Burning Bone Update

POSITION: Sold US Dollar today


Like Jimmy Carter had former 1970s Fed Head Arthur Burns’ back on this, the President of the United States has Ben Bernanke’s. In the last 24 hours neither Obama or Bernanke did as much as mention the US Dollar. These are both sad and fascinating times in American history.


Don’t forget that Burns was the last Federal Reserve Chairman who tried to monetize the debt as President Carter tried to convince the American people that real-world inflation was a mirage.


According to The Ber-nank’s FOMC statement, there is no inflation. Or at least according to his conflicted and compromised US government calculation of “core” CPI (which they’ve changed 9 times since 1996) says so…


Given what happened to market prices in December, this is a reckless and/or politicized conclusion: 

  1. Stocks went straight up
  2. Commodities went straight up
  3. Interest rates went straight up 

The corollary to all of this inflation being marked-to-market has, of course, been the headwind that inflation usually is for bonds and emerging markets (they went down).


On the news, the Bone is Burning alongside the Fed’s credibility.


Best of luck trading the inflation casino,



FOMC: Burning Bone Update - 1

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more