The verdict? Largest overlap (5-mile radius) goes to Foot Locker (6.6%), Payless (4.6%) and DSW (3.9%). Finish Line and Famous Footwear are around 2.5%. Skechers brings up the rear at 0.6% -- though we can’t ignore the $172k receivable on SKX’s books that is at risk.
I can debate whether overlapping a bankrupt competitor is positive or negative – i.e. will it lead to more promotional behavior if the retailer stays alive, or will it rationalize industry capacity?
The answer depends on duration, which is unknown for now.
More important than any direct impact on any of these peers, my view on all this is that it simply shows how high-cost retailers in a low margin business with structurally weak asset turns simply cannot cut it when the supply chain starts to stress out like we’re seeing today. There will be more Marty’s, Steve and Barry’s and Shoe Pavilion’s. I think that this particularly highlights the risk to DSW’s business model, as well as all components of Brown Shoe.