Bearish: SP500 Levels, Refreshed



At -6.2% downside versus +0.5% upside, there is a considerable amount of immediate-term TRADE risk in the US Equity market right here. Remember, tops are processes, not points.


That doesn’t mean we’re bearish on everything US Equities (we’re long Healthcare, Energy, and Inflation), but we are bearish on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and the SP500 (SPY).


What would have me cover my short position in SPY? 

  1. A US Dollar Index resuscitation above the intermediate-term TREND line of $78.66
  2. A breakdown of the VIX, below its immediate-term TRADE line of 16.95
  3. A breakout of the RUT (Russell2000) back above its immediate-term TRADE line of resistance of  789 

Realizing full well that the “flows” can trump the fundamentals on a Monday after a +91% stock market move that most index chasers are chasing, that won’t shake me from what I continue to see in both Emerging Markets and Bonds. I see inflation (that’s why these markets are going down) and so does the US Consumer or the XLY and XLP wouldn’t be dead in the water so far for 2011 YTD (2 of the 3 worst performing S&P Sectors).


My immediate-term TRADE lines of support and resistance are now 1273 and 1295, respectively.



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Bearish: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - 1

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more