JNY Miss: Proactively Predictable


It’s been a while since a miss did not phase me whatsoever.  JNY has been one of our favorite short ideas. But importantly, it is not done. Three considerations…


1)  I’d call this a ‘mini-miss’. Yes, numbers are coming down, but are still based in part on ‘strong brand performance,’ selective price increases, and mid-single digit revenue growth.  Do you want to give them a free pass on that? Be my guess.


2)  There will be another one of these. Keep in mind that JNY values inventory on the lower of ‘cost or market’ and then layers this over FIFO accounting. Translation = gross margin weakness today is using raw materials procured anywhere between 6-12 months ago, and includes ‘rebound demand’ of msd comps.


3)  By mid-year we’ll be looking at ‘normalized’ demand, on top of raw materials being purchased today. Then we get to witness first hand the gong show that ensues as the supply chain beats itself up to protect margin, or find some growth.


The point is that no one should use this as an announcement as an indication of ‘ok, the blow ups are here, now I can selectively buy.’ Quite the opposite. The blowups are here, and will accelerate throughout the year.


Here’s a YouTube of JNY’s guidance today vs. 13 weeks back.


JNY Miss: Proactively Predictable - JNY Youtube 1 11

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more