This morning's US Consumer Price Inflation report came in line with my expectations, down -0.1% sequentially, but elevated on the year over year basis at +5.4%.
From a modeling perspective, the August comparison was really the last easy one left in the data set. In Q4 comparisons are higher, therefore the path of least resistance for reported US inflation will finally move to the downside.
On the margin, this is an important bullish macro market factor, as it will finally allow the objective (i.e. those who have seen the chart below for what it has been for the past 9 months for what it was, inflationary!) see a meaningful decline in headline inflation in their prospective outlook.
The politicians of course, will be stuck with the revisionist historians, telling you to react to this chart and all that we have already proactively prepared for. Inflation (in the US) is a trailing economic indicator.
KM
From a modeling perspective, the August comparison was really the last easy one left in the data set. In Q4 comparisons are higher, therefore the path of least resistance for reported US inflation will finally move to the downside.
On the margin, this is an important bullish macro market factor, as it will finally allow the objective (i.e. those who have seen the chart below for what it has been for the past 9 months for what it was, inflationary!) see a meaningful decline in headline inflation in their prospective outlook.
The politicians of course, will be stuck with the revisionist historians, telling you to react to this chart and all that we have already proactively prepared for. Inflation (in the US) is a trailing economic indicator.
KM
