Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. 

#HedgeyeNation will be more obsessed with “why” I sold-SOME Gold before it corrected -2% this morning. But why isn’t our profession (the Asset Allocators in particular) more obsessed with finding a better process and a better way?

Why is it that literally every time we see a -20% crash/drawdown in a consensus index like the NASDAQ that many consensus hedge funds do worse than Long Onlys? The simple answer is crowding and consensus positioning at particular points in Cycle Time.

At the most basic level what does that mean?

A) Either when I wrote “Short QQQ’s Now” (FEB 10) or at last week’s rally to lower-highs, they should have sold
B) Yesterday they should have been buying/covering

That’s it. That’s all they had to do. Be better. Don’t be the crowd. Get it right.

CHART OF THE DAY: Particular Points in Cycle Time Matter - cod39fixed


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