TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - January 18, 2011
Equity futures are trading mixed with the Nasdaq set to open lower following yesterday's news that Steve Jobs will take a medical leave of absence as the company is set to report earnings after the close. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -1.26% downside to 1277 and +0.45% upside to 1299.
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 7:45 a.m.: ICSC weekly sales
- 8:30 a.m.: Empire Manufacturing, est. 13.00, prior 10.57
- 9 a.m.: Net long-term TIC Flows, est. $40.0b, prior $27.6b
- 10 a.m.: NAHB Housing market index, est. 17, prior 16
- 11 a.m.: Export inspections (grains)
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to see $29b in 3-mo., $28b in 6-mo. bills
- 5 p.m.: ABC consumer confidence
TODAY’S EARNINGS TO WATCH:
- Delta Air Lines (DAL) 7:30 a.m., $0.24
- TD Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) 7:30 a.m., $0.25
- Fastenal (FAST) 7:50 a.m., $0.45
- Citigroup (C) 8 a.m., $0.08
- Forest Laboratories (FRX) 8 a.m., $0.98
- McMoRan Exploration Co (MMR) 8 a.m., $(0.28)
- Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45 a.m., $0.11 (tentative)
- Cree (CREE) 4 p.m., $0.58
- International Business Machines (IBM) 4:08 p.m., $4.08
- Western Digital (WDC) 4:15 p.m., $0.58
- Apple (AAPL) 4:30 p.m., $5.39
- Fulton Financial (FULT) 4:30 a.m., $0.16
- Linear Technology (LLTC) 5 p.m., $0.58
PERFORMANCE:
- One day: Dow +0.47%, S&P +0.74%, Nasdaq +0.73%, Russell +0.86%
- Last Week: Dow +0.96%, S&P +1.71%, Nasdaq 1.93%, Russell +2.51%
- Year-to-date: Dow +1.81%, S&P +2.83%, Nasdaq +3.86%, Russell +3.05%
- Sector Performance - (8 sectors positive and 1 flat) - Financials +1.61%, Energy +1.08%, Tech +0.89%, Consumer Discretionary +0.61%, Industrials +0.47%, Utilities +0.41%, Materials +0.23%, Healthcare +0.12% and Consumer Staples (0.00%).
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 461 (+732)
- VOLUME: NYSE 1059.74 (14.61%)
- VIX: 15.46 +5.67% YTD PERFORMANCE: -12.90%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.46 from 1.39 (+4.97%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
Treasuries were little changed, but tempered slightly weaker as equities rose
- TED SPREAD: 15.81
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.15%
- YIELD CURVE: 2.76 from 2.75
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:
- CRB: 333.06 +0.02% (last week: +2.82%)
- Oil: 91.02 -0.57% - trading +0.56% in the AM (last week: +3.99)
- Crude Oil Trades Near a 27-Month High After IEA Increases Demand Forecast
- COPPER: 438.45 -0.62% - trading +1.20% in the AM (last week: +3.02%)
- Copper rally on supply shortfall
- GOLD: 1,360.97 +0.14% - trading +0.55% in the AM (last week: -0.65%)
- Gold Advances as Europe Debt Concern, Price Decline Spur Investor Demand
OTHER COMMODITY NEWS:
- Food Prices Causing Riots in Africa Stoke Record U.S. Farm Economy Growth
- Wheat Advances, Corn Reaches 18-Month High on Rising Demand, Lower Stocks
- Nickel Rises to Eight-Month High on Stronger Chinese Usage; Copper Gains
- Cocoa Rises After EU Imposes Ivory Coast Sanctions; Sugar, Coffee Advance
- Hedge-Fund Bets on Costlier Feeder Cattle Increase to Highest Since 2006
- Soybeans, Palm Oil to Extend Rally on Tight Supply, India's Top Buyer Says
- Coal Prices Reach Two-Year High as Flooding in Australia Curbs Production
- Rubber Futures Decline From Record as China May Raise Rates to Cool Prices
- Mitsui Mining to Cut Zinc Output on Maintenance Shutdown at Top Smelter
- Coal's China-Australia Discount at 8-Month High on Floods: Energy Markets
- Gold Sold in Tokyo Vending Machines Competes with Drinks, Sweets, Lingerie
- Europe Commodity Day Ahead: First Gold Vending Machines Installed in Tokyo
CURRENCIES:
- EURO: 1.3295 -0.69% - trading +0.90% in the AM
- DOLLAR: 79.337 +0.22% - trading -0.61% in the AM
EUROPEAN MARKETS:
- European Markets: FTSE 100: +1.08%; DAX: +0.95%; CAC 40: +0.81% (as of 07:30 ET)
- European markets opened higher as positive corporate earnings helped sentiment.
- The periphery remained in focus as European Finance Minister meet today with uncertainty remaining as to whether there will be any agreement to increase the EuroZone rescue fund.
- Reports Russia may resume buying Spanish debt and a constructive Spanish bill auction lead to indices extending gains, though the UK lagged after disappointing UK inflation data pared gains.
- All sectors other than healthcare (0.3%) trade higher led by banks +2.6%, media +2.0% and autos +1.6%.
ECONOMICS:
- UK Dec CPI +3.7% y/y vs consensus +3.3% and prior +3.3%
- UK Dec RPI +4.8% y/y vs consensus +4.8% and prior 4.7%
- Germany Jan ZEW Index +15.4 vs consensus +6.8 and prior +4.3 - German Jan ZEW current situation 82.8 vs consensus 83.8 and prior 82.6
ASIAN MARKTES:
- Asian Markets: Nikkei +0.15%; Hang Seng (0.01%); Shanghai Composite +0.09%
- Asian stocks were mixed today, as investors waited to see Wall Street’s reaction to Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs’s taking a medical leave of absence.
- Australia rose +0.81, with banks and retail stocks finding favor.
- Japan erased early losses to close slightly higher.
- China finished flat, with strong earnings from Industrial Bank and China Everbright Bank despite downward pressure resulting from a report that the country has cut banks’ lending targets 10% for the year.
- Chalco jumped 5% in active trading on forecasting a return to profit for last year, but Hong Kong finished flat. Local property developers extended yesterday’s gains. Hutchison Whampoa fell 2% on announcing a plan to spin off its ports business.
- Tech stocks advanced, but could not bring South Korea closed down 0.16%
- Japan revised November industrial output +1.0% m/m, matching preliminary figure. November capacity utilization index +1.6% m/m to 86.7. December department-store sales (1.5%) y/y. Tokyo December department-store sales (0.3%) y/y..
