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Expectations for a HK$20 BN+ month as some analysts are suggesting may be high but January should still be a record month.

Gross table gaming revenues were HK$10.08 billion in the first half of January.  Based on this data we are projecting full month gaming revenues (including slots) will come in at HK$18.5-19.0 billion.  Activity should slow in the last week given the proximity to the February 3rd start of the Chinese New Year celebration.  Still, anywhere in this range would represent a monthly record and generate YoY growth of 36-40%.

Market shares shifted significantly in the last month, at least between the two big US operators.  Wynn gave up 300bps compared to its share last week, mostly to LVS which gained 250bps.  Our intelligence in Macau tells us the shift was entirely hold related.  We will note that Wynn’s share remains above its 12 month average although below its recent elevated levels.  LVS is now right in-line with its depressed 3 month average.  We continue to be impressed with MGM and we believe they have been successful in driving bottom line results at the property as well.  Here are the shares:

STRONG START TO YEAR IN MACAU - macau