Below is a complimentary Demography Unplugged research note written by Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe. Click here to learn more and subscribe.
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18% of U.S. adults say they bet on sports at least once a month. This has risen from 10% last year and is mostly concentrated among those age 44 and younger. (Morning Consult) |
NH: You aren't alone if you're planning to bet on the Super Bowl.
According to a December Morning Consult poll, 18% of Americans ages 21+ said they gamble on sports “at least once a month.” That's a whopping +80% YoY increase.
Americans under 45 are the most likely to bet. 28% of those ages 21-34 and 31% of those ages 35-44 gamble on sports at least once a month. Only 10% of those ages 50-64 and 5% of those ages 65+ say the same thing.
So why has sports gambling increased?
The biggest reason is that more states have legalized it. In 2021, 6 states legalized sports betting, and 11 states launched new betting platforms. The industry has also amped up its marketing.
The Information estimates that sports betting companies spent $1.2B in ads in 2021. The surge in betting among risk-averse Millennials may seem like a surprise.
But let's face it: Stratospheric valuation multiples, negative real rates, debt pyramiding, and the Fed backup guarantee make pretty much any risk seem tame nowadays. After the stampede into junk bonds, SPACs, crypto, NFTs, and meme stocks, is betting on a sports score really so over the top?
Most of these young gamblers aren’t putting up a lot of money. 29% bet $10 or less on a game. And 47% bet $25 or less. Here is one way young people without much money can get in on the speculative frenzy.
Besides, many Millennials don’t see sports gambling as a flip of the coin. Armed with the right data, they believe they can come out on top. (See “How to Make Millennials Interested in Sports Media.”)
One big question posed by the current trajectory of the markets--and of Fed policy--is this. Will gambling suffer along with other speculative investment flows if the market continues to move in a bearish direction?
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.