“Seven Hikes”? LOL. How We Front-Run (& Fade) The Fed

"If you can navigate a peak, and survive the other side, now you're doing Macro the right way." – Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough For more insights like this, sign up for our free Weekend Reading newsletter.

In case you missed it, this past Friday morning Neel Kash-n-carry (aka Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari) essentially called bullsh*t on his crony Fed compatriots and Wall Street. 

Two quick takeaways from his interview:

• A pause in rate hikes in the spring is possible (Fed hikes are likely to be one & done)
• The long end of the curve (which has flattened substantially) is indicating we are entering a period of lower inflation & growth (#QUAD4)

Q: Who already made that call?
A: We did.

Hedgeye Risk-Manager-in-Chief Keith McCullough began signaling to investors a potential Q1 2022 #Quad4 … in the fourth quarter of 2021. Here are some key dates leading up to the “Kashkari Crescendo”:

January 3^rd 2022: McCullough broke down the impending #Quad4 (when economic growth & inflation slow, simultaneously) on our premium Macro Themes Quarterly Call. Yes, inflation continues to remain at elevated levels; but that’s not what matters in Macro… it’s the Rate of Change that drives markets!

January 25^th:  McCullough calls out the Fed for needing to (and the modal outcome being) reducing rate expectations to one hike, and that’s it. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on The Macro Show on 1/25 (click to watch the clip):

“Fed Fund Futures are only down to 3.9 hikes; Powell has to get that down to 2, and then 1 and done. That’s according to me; I’m the one with the #Quad4 call, I’m the one who knocks.” (note: futures jumped to pricing in 4.7 hikes by 1/27).

January 28^th: THREE DAYS LATER … Neel Kashkari puts his Hedgeye subscription to good use and confirms the above! We can neither confirm nor deny if Neel is a sub…

This is explicitly how/why Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough built his Growth, Inflation & Policy model… to use his #VASP (Volatility-Adjust Signaling Process) and NowCast models to FRONT-RUN Fed Policy (and help our subscribers preserve their hard-earned capital from the corps of cronies trying to wash away our purchasing power).

ICING ON THE CAKE: This came just as a slew of Old Wall Street big wigs & “forecasters” (e.g. Jamie Dimon, Bill Ackman, BofA, Goldman, Wells Fargo, the CCP) came out predicting SEVEN rate hikes through 2022, or a 50 basis point hike at the March meeting, both, etc. etc. … yet another soon-to-be freezing cold take from the Street.

How did Keith (and #HedgeyeNation) play it? What were our key asset allocations, pivots, intraday buy & sell signals? Well.. we pulled back the curtain and showed everyone how we make the sausage during our FREE ALL-ACCESS DAY OF HEDGEYE on Thursday (1/27). We (strongly) encourage you to check it out.

Here’s the breakdown of what we gave you FREE ACCESS to:

• [7:00 AM] Bitcoin Trend Tracker: We send out our daily updated Risk Range™ Buy & Sell Signals volatility analytics, Wall Street positioning, futures, and MOER for Cryptocurrencies & ETFs, including: Bitcoin, Ethereum, MSTR, GBTC, ETHE, BLOK, COIN, and BITO.
• [7:45 AM] The Call @ Hedgeye: NOW LIVE! The complete edition of Hedgeye’s morning research call featuring our 40+ analyst research team discussing their Best Long & Short Stock Ideas and Sector Outlook.
• [8:00 AM] Early Look:  Keith McCullough’s DAILY MORNING MACRO NOTE to institutional and retail investors around the world.
• [8:40 AM] Risk Range™ Signals: 20 Daily Buy/Sell levels on equities, commodities and currencies featuring: SPX, RUT, XLK, UST10Y, XLU, USD, Gold, Copper, AMZN, FB, TSLA, AND MORE.
• [9:00 AM] The Macro Show: Our must-see *flagship* online, pre-market investing broadcast prepping subscribers for the trading day (and weeks/months) ahead.
• [10:30 AM] Real-Time Alerts Live: Exclusive webcast with Keith McCullough giving his detailed insight and trading ranges on key equity and asset exposures.
• [11:00 AM] The Morning Shift: Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones’ PREMIUM daily macro note breaking down the key economic data driving our outlook, along with a re-ranking of our top Macro ETFs.

All of this is ON THE HOUSE. Our gift to you.

This is how Hedgeye subscribers protect their faces from getting ripped off every single day. Catch the replays and read what you missed learn how #HedgeyeNation front-runs the Old Wall, rather than playing catch up while hemorrhaging their hard-earned capital along the way.

For more insights like this, sign up for our free Weekend Reading newsletter.