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Tops are processes, not points. Below we have attached a 10 year chart of Chinese Retail Sales. Since this morning's report incorporated the Olympic lift, it behooves us not to ask 'The Question' - is +23% annualized growth as good as it gets? We think it is.

On an absolute dollar basis, food inputs are a huge component of these figures. Keep in mind that this data is drawn from the immediate build up to the Olympic Games and, according to Bloomberg, NBC retail data includes “commodities sold to government agencies, institutions, social organizations, and military and armed police units”. With an army of police and military security on hand for the games in Beijing as well as 1.7 million “Citizen Volunteers” that all needed to be fed , that number may have seen a significant uptick in July due to bulk purchasing.

Keith McCullough & Andrew Barber
Research Edge LLC