Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. 

To put those now Consensus Crash Conditions in context:

  1. Since starting Hedgeye in 2008, the US stock market crashes 100% of the time IF the Fed tightens into a #Quad4
  2. Today’s Chart of The Day shows you the expectations that GS set (market expectations ramped to 3.98 hikes)
  3. If/when that expectation goes > 4 hikes, stock market crash Conditional Probabilities rise (towards 3 they fall)

That said, I’ll reiterate that 1, 2, or 3 hikes will probably crash markets into #Quad4 in Q2 anyway. From today’s hopeful pre-market US Equity Futures ramp, the Russell 2000 (IWM) could be in crash mode by the end of the day.

CHART OF THE DAY: Implied Overnight Rate & Number Of Hikes Priced In - ior