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HEDGEYE'S TOP 3 THINGS
Below are the top three things from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's Macro Notebook this morning:
1) CURVE – PE Powell just pancaked the Yield Curve from +78bps wide on 10s/2s to +66bps and he may very well invert it with 4.8 rate hikes now expected ahead of headline U.S. GDP #slowing from +7% (#Quad2 in Q4) towards +2% in Q2 – that’s a massive deceleration and the longer Oil stays up here, the DEEPER our Nowcast for #Quad4 in Q2 goes – Short Fins (XLF).
2) CRASHES – Russell 2000 turn-tailed in a hurry yesterday moving ever-closer to an official crash at -19.1% from where both it and Bitcoin peaked during the #PeakCycle data that PE Powell is looking backwards at (NOV data was the peak for Real Growth on a Monthly Quad basis); South Korea’s Dr. KOSPI joined our Russia (RSX) Short, officially crashing last night (-3.5%).
3) GOLD – Easiest Asset Allocation decision to make this morning, especially if you didn’t gross up the position yet.. at 1.18% on the UST 2YR Yield and nothing but net on the downside for both Real GDP and FED RATE CUT expectations (first they need to cut out 1-2 hikes!), Gold has figured this out, making higher-lows post a @Hedgeye TREND breakout.