CHART OF THE DAY: CPI-PPI Divergence

01/12/22 07:55AM EST

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. 

Back to tomorrow’s Global Macro GROWTH & INFLATION news instead of yesterday’s Peak Cycle Inflation reports:

A) China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) #slowed, big time, from its INFLATION Cycle peak
B) China’s PPI (which leads CPI, or tomorrow’s news) #slowed from +12.9% in NOV to +10.9% in DEC
C) China’s CPI #slowed from +2.3% in NOV to +1.5% in DEC

And Asian Bond Yields fell on the “unexpected” disinflationary news. Stocks rallied, taking the Shanghai Composite Index right back up to the particularly important @Hedgeye TREND level of 3591.

Why does this matter?

A) China was the 1st major economy to signal #Quad3 STAGFLATION @Hedgeye at this time last year
B) Zero of the Consensus Inflation Econs of today made that timely and accurate Cycle Call on China last year
C) By the end of Q2 2021, one of the biggest Asian Hedgies (sorry Bill) blew up being levered long in #Quad3

And yes, those #Quad3 blowup factors (#Quad3 is the best Quad to be SHORT China Internet/Growth/ Consumer) are now your BASE EFFECTS going forward. That’s why China remains the top candidate to go from short to long @Hedgeye Macro.

CHART OF THE DAY: CPI-PPI Divergence  - CPPP1

© 2022 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.