Removing outlets from the ‘tourist market store location analysis’ highlights some very interesting call-outs.

I posted an analysis on 9/7 that included tourist market exposure for all apparel and footwear retailers in the US – both public and private. The results definitely pointed out some outliers (check out Monday’s post). This time, we stripped out all outlet stores, and only looked at factory store exposure for each company. Perhaps not a universally fair analysis, as there are certain retailers where outlets are the most profitable formats. But by and large, tourists don’t hit the outlet circuit. Not to sound like a broken record, but my concern remains that we see pressure on translation in foreign denominated profits but people look past the crimp in US comps and margins due to weaker tourism trends.

Key takeaways…
1) ZQK looks incrementally worse. 65%? Ouch!
2) Tilly’s at 50% is not much better. It’s a good thing they did not go public last year after all.
3) ZQK and Tilly’s look even worse stacked against Zumiez at 2%.
4) Ralph Lauren’s exposure is starting to bug me vis/vis an otherwise solid margin outlook.
5) Tiffany still looks very bad, and 12% of sales coming from 1 NYC store does not help.
6) Adidas looks worse than it did before at 44%.
7) Coach still looks fairly benign at 20%.
8) Liz, Carter’s, Nike – all looking low.
9) Big difference between Dick’s at 7% and Sports Authority at 23%.
10) Foot Locker and Finish Line at sub 10% looking good.