TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - December 21, 2010


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 11 points or -0.65% downside to 1239 and 0.23% upside to 1250.  Equity futures remain range bound in what is expected to be a positive start to trading as the pre-Christmas rally finds further strength.  A reduction in tension on the Korean peninsula and supportive comments for the Euro from the Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Qishan looks to be the main catalyst behind today's positive tone.  With little in the way of macro headlines expected this session, activity is expected to remain light.

  • Adobe Systems (ADBE) sees 2011 rev. at least $4.18b, vs est. $4.08b
  • AOL (AOL) agrees to buy social identity site about me Inc., terms not disclosed
  • Biogen Idec (BIIB) says it has acquired a unit of Neurimmune, which includes worldwide rights to three preclinical immunotherapy programs
  • Darden Restaurants (DRI) sees year sales up 5%-6%, had seen up 5.5%-6.5%; implies rev. $7.47b-$7.54b vs est. $7.50b
  • HCP (HCP) cut FY adj. FFO forecast to $2.17-$2.23 from $2.18-$2.24, vs est. $2.19
  • Jabil Circuit (JBL) sees 2Q core EPS 49c-53c, vs est. 45c
  • Paychex (PAYX) reported 2Q EPS 37c vs est. 35c
  • Pepco Holdings (POM) sees FY 2011 capex $1.09b, FY 2012 $1.18b


  • One day: Dow (0.12%), S&P +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.25%, Russell +0.36%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +4.29%, S&P +5.64%, Nasdaq +6.06%, Russell +7.61%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +6.4%, S&P +9.28%, Nasdaq +11.86%, Russell +15.7%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +10.07%, S&P +11.84%, Nasdaq +16.76%, Russell +25.09%
  • Sector Performance: Energy +0.71%, Consumer Discretionary +0.61%, Telecom +0.49%, Materials +0.42%, Financials +0.37%, Utilities +0.37%, Tech +0.07%, Healthcare +0.06%, Industrials +0.01%, and Consumer Staples (0.14%)    


  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -45 (-391)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 829.77 (-58.90%)
  • VIX:  16.41 +1.86% YTD PERFORMANCE: -24.31%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.92 from 2.45%


  • TED SPREAD: 18.62 -1.522 (-7.556%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.14% +0.03%  
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.74 from 2.72


  • CRB: 324.27 +1.14%
  • Oil: 89.37 +0.87%
  • COPPER: 420.60 +1.13%
  • GOLD: 1,386.50 +1.08%


  • EURO: 1.3122 -0.50%
  • DOLLAR: 80.628 +0.32%



  • European equity markets moved higher despite Moody's placing Portugal's A1/P-1 ratings on review for possible downgrade as comments from Chinese officials backing European actions so far to tackle its debt crisis and the easing of tensions on the Korean peninsula helped sentiment.
  • M&A activity was again a focus with little other significant corporate or economic news.
  • Peripheral debt spreads were pressured by Moody's action and ahead of a Spanish T-bill auction whilst disappointing UK government borrowing data weighed on gilts.
  • All sectors trade higher led by basic resources +1.4% and autos +1.0%.
  • UK Dec GfK Consumer Confidence (21) vs consensus (22) and prior (21)
  • Germany Jan GfK Index +5.4 vs consensus +5.7 and prior +5.5
  • The highest UK public sector net borrowing requirement on record in Nov of £22.8B weighed on the pound


  • In thin trade, Asian markets rose today on eased concern about the situation on the Korean peninsula.
  • Property stocks led China higher (+1.79%), jumping 5% on a report forecasting that urban housing prices could rise 20% next year.
  • Hong Kong followed China up +1.57% on bargain-hunting, but turnover was low.
  • Japan rose 1.51%. Fuji Heavy went up 1% on a report it may build a JV factory with Chery Automobile in China.
  • South Korea moved up 0.83% to a high for the year after North Korea did not retaliate for yesterday’s military exercises.
  • On higher commodity prices, materials stocks led Australia up 0.75%.


Howard Penney

Managing Director



Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more