THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - December 16, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 14 points or -0.26% downside to 1230 and 0.87% upside to 1246.  Equity futures are trading modestly above fair value following mixed day on Wednesday, which saw the S&P snap a six-day winning streak. 

In Europe, the start of a two-day summit may be of note should any major disagreements emerge on how best to deal with the European sovereign crisis going forward. On the data front, weekly jobless claims, Q3 current account balance and Dec Philadelphia Fed are due for release

  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) announced 64c-shr dividend for 4Q, vs BDVD est. 68c
  • AutoZone (AZO) authorized $500m stock buyback
  • Bank of America (BAC) said some investors in soured mortgage bonds agreed to postpone deadlines set in Oct. 18 letter
  • Danaher (DHR) sees 1Q GAAP EPS 52c-57c, vs est. 57c
  • Herman Miller (MLHR) reported 2Q adj. EPS 29c vs est. 28c
  • Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) agreed to acquire FTEN, terms not disclosed
  • Nordson (NDSN) sees 1Q adj. EPS $1.03-$1.13 vs est. 94c
  • SciClone Pharmaceuticals (SCLN) will end devt. of SCV-07 for hepatitis C after trial didn’t meet primary endpoint
  • Tower Bancorp (TOBC) announced public offering of $44m shares

PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.17%), S&P (0.51%), Nasdaq (0.40%), Russell 2000 (0.43%)
  • Last Week:  Dow +0.25%, S&P +01.28%, Nasdaq +1.78%, Russell +2.70%
  • Month-to-date: -to-date: Dow +4.10%, S&P +4.63%, Nasdaq +4.76%, Russell +5.69%;
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +6.21%, S&P +8.24%, Nasdaq +10.50%, Russell +13.64%;
  • Year-to-date: Dow +9.87%, S&P +10.77%, Nasdaq +15.34%, Russell +22.86%
  • Sector Performance: Utilities (0.9%), Financials (0.9%), Materials (0.7%), Energy (0.7%), Tech (0.6%), Industrials (0.5%), Consumer Disc (0.4%), Healthcare (0.4%), Consumer Spls +0.1%.              

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -965 (-597)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1111.05 (+16.58%)
  • VIX:  17.61 +0.34% YTD PERFORMANCE: -18.77%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.10 from 1.26 -12.40%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.50 -0.203 (-1.214%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.14% -0.01%  
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.85 from 2.83

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 318.90 -0.25%
  • Oil: 88.62 +0.39%
  • COPPER: 413.25 -1.82%
  • GOLD: 1,386.38 -1.22%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3276 -1.02%%
  • DOLLAR: 80.261 +1.13%

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • European markets mostly trade higher with indices near the days best levels.
  • Gains are muted ahead of the start of the two day EU Leaders Summit as investors await any details on an increase in the size of the current bailout fund and following Spain's bond auction that saw a significant increase in yields.
  • Advancing sectors lead decliners 16-2 with healthcare and insurance the only sectors lower.
  • Retailers are amongst the leading gainers. US futures trade higher 
  • Dec Preliminary PMI France: Manf 56.3 vs con 57.6; Svcs 54.1 vs con 55.2, Germany: Manf 60.9 vs con 58.1; Svcs 58.3 vs con 59.0, EuroZone: Manf 56.8 vs con 55.2; Svcs 53.7 vs con 55.2, UK Nov Retail Sales inc. fuel +0.3% m/m vs con +0.4%

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Most Asian markets fell today, with concerns about European debt keeping many players out of the market.
  • Australia rose slightly. Virgin Blue and Air New Zealand rallied 6% each after the ACCC conditionally approved their alliance.
  • Japan was flat, as gains from a weaker yen were offset by worries about European debt.
  • South Korea fell0.41%, breaking a three-day winning streak.
  • Coal stocks rose, but China fell 0.46% on low volume.
  • Insurers took Hong Kong down 1.33%.

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER