POSITION: Short SPY
In the last few SP500 Levels notes, I’ve labeled them “Less Bearish” – in the last 48 hours, I’ve moved back to Bearish Enough. We get that US Retail Sales were up in November (driven by gas prices, but who cares about the details) and that it’s bonus season on Wall Street (reminding your boss that you were bearish isn’t cool). That and the reality that most of the Fed’s policy to inflate finding its way into the storytelling about sustainable “growth” is what it is - yesterday’s news.
Have we seen this movie before? VIX in the teens and SPY at 2-3 month highs? Of course we have. That’s why, in the face of Global Growth Slowing, Global Inflation Accelerating, and Interconnected Risk Compounding, that I have no problem making sales up here. For the first time since November, I’m back to running with more SHORTS than LONGS in the Hedgeye Portfolio. This is new as of yesterday.
Fed Fighting is now fashionable (USD up, Bonds down), and will become more fashionable if the SP500 breaks its immediate term TRADE line of support at 1233. There’s a long way down to intermediate term TREND line support (1157), and I think we’ll see that print in the new year.
Sell slowly, my friends.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer