In this exclusive replay from our recent presentation from The Outlook, Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal joins Keith McCullough to discuss where the Macro environment may be heading as the market and economic data evolves. In particular, Keith digs into Raoul's investment process in crypto, the impact of the millennial investor, and where Bitcoin can go from here.
For your viewing pleasure we have provided a brief transcript below.
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McCullough: I want to just start with your framework, process, and how this came to be such a huge position or bet.
Pal: So, I kind of figured out a long time ago, like we all have, that there is a debt issue in the world. when Lehman went bust and things like that happened, nobody knew who owned what. And someone introduced me to blockchain and Bitcoin back in 2012, and I thought " this could be the answer to all of this."
So I started investing back then and I wrote probably the first Macro paper on valuing Bitcoin back in 2013. I basically looked at it in a stock to flow model versus Gold, and I thought you know with Gold around $1300 at the time, Bitcoin could be worth as much as a billion dollars.
Which sounded crazy cause it was at $200 then. I bought it and I held it for a few years, then sold it in the rally of 2017. Then it had been on my radar screen as things were evolving. Then, I always said that for the next financial crisis, the answer to any crisis is now printing more money. Therefore crypto and macro were going to meet at the next crisis, and it was going to dawn on a lot of people that this limited supply digital asset had true value to create a new financial system and had a store-value property even though it remains extremely volatile.
So March 2020 comes along and it sells off hard, and I realize this is the opportunity I have been waiting for.
So I kind of started pounding the table. At that time I was still involved in Bonds, Euro Dollar Futures, Dollars, stuff like that. You know all the usual macro stuff. But crypto started becoming a bigger position, because what I started looking into the chart of Bitcoin against other assets, and I was like "holy sh*t" this is going to break out versus everything."