The Macau Metro Monitor, December 14th, 2010



Galaxy said it has not hired anyone from Vietnam to date for its Cotai resort, denying accusations of illegal recruitment abroad. Over 500 people “have already begun work at Galaxy Macau” and the 2,700 MSAR residents already hired will also start work “over the next two months,” Galaxy added.

Fed Fighting

“Pick a fight.”

-Jason Fried & David Heinemeier Hansson


Seth Godin said “ignore this book at your own peril.” Tom Peters said “the clarity, even genius, of this book actually brought me to near tears on several occasions. Just bloody brilliant, that’s what.”


I gave this book to everyone on our team for a recent strategy session. It’s called “REWORK” and I think you can not only apply it to how you think about your company and portfolios, but how you think about your life. Learn, Unlearn, and Rework. It’s healthy.


Some people don’t like to fight. I do. Especially when I find someone on the other side of something that I am passionate about. If you’re going to pick a fight though, and take this from a 5 foot 9 inch hockey player, you better pick the ones you can win.


Conventional wisdom says don’t “fight the Fed.”


We live in unconventional times.


Not only do I think it’s a great time to pick a fight with the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I think we can win.


“We” isn’t a group of passionate people in New Haven, Connecticut. “We” isn’t all of the Americans who are, pardon the pun, fed up with Big Government Intervention in our markets. “We” are the world’s risk managers.


The Chinese are fighting the Fed. So are the Australians, Brazilians, and Germans.  So let’s line up what’s in our corner this morning and go through who and/or what can help us engage in Fed Fighting:

  1. Global Inflation
  2. Global Bond Yields
  3. The US Dollar

Let’s go in reverse order and start with the US Dollar first. Last week the US Dollar was up another +0.86% for the week.  It closed higher for the 5th week out of the last 6 and +5.3% higher than its YTD low established on November the 4th (post QG2 and the midterm elections).


We’ve been long the US Dollar (UUP) since November the 4th in anticipation of both global inflation accelerating and globally interconnected risk compounding. We’ve also had a keen eye on the macro calendar catalyst pending in the new year of both Ron Paul being able to subpoena the Fed and Republicans having a mandate for American Austerity measures.


Global bond yields are chasing higher and breaking out on both our TRADE and TREND durations. Despite US Treasury yields selling off in the last 24 hours ahead of The Ber-nank’s FOMC decision today, they remain in a very bullish pattern – and, as a result, the entire bond market is in a very bearish immediate-term position.


The TRADE and TREND lines for 2s, 10s, and 30s across the US Treasury Yields curve are as follows:

  1. 2-year yields have TRADE and TREND lines of support of 0.49% and 0.46%, respectively.
  2. 10-year yields have TRADE and TREND lines of support of 2.87% and 2.68%, respectively.
  3. 30-year yields have TRADE and TREND lines of support of 4.26% and 3.94%, respectively.

All of these moves in US yields are being perpetuated by:


A) Asian yields rising on government interest rate hikes, and

B) European yields rising on both inflation and sovereign debt risk.


This morning’s Spanish 12-month bond auction yielded 3.44% versus 2.36% in the prior auction and inflation in the UK remained above the Bank of England’s token target, pushing to +3.3% in November versus +3.2% in October.


Global inflation has been driving bonds lower for the last 6 weeks. No matter what Ben Bernanke says about inflation in his statement today, the market is already running way ahead of him on this. Remember, markets don’t lie; politicians do.


Sure, you can make a case that in the face of tax cut extensions US growth expectations are rising as well. But don’t mistake short-term levered-growth (cutting taxes and ramping the deficit/GDP ratio) for sustainable organic GDP growth.


Whether it’s the price of the CRB Commodities Index (up +20.5% since the day in August that The Ber-nank decided to inflate), or the price of copper hitting an all-time-high of $4.22/lb this morning (+31% since August), I don’t think I’m alone in picking a fight with the Fed on this fine December day of 2010.


Global markets have my back. If you are politicking to debauch the dollar again today Mr. Bernanke, keep your head up.


My immediate term TRADE support and resistance lines for the SP500 are now 1226 and 1246, respectively. We remain short both the SP500 (SPY) and the short end of the US Treasury markets (SHY) in the Hedgeye Portfolio.


Best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Fed Fighting - 1


TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - December 14, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -1.17% downside to 1226 and 0.45% upside to 1246.  Equity futures are trading modestly above fair value in the wake of Monday's late session retreat which left the S&P flat on the day. Today's FOMC meeting is unlikely to provide any fireworks, but Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments will as ever, be monitored for any changes in policy tone.   Before the open PPI and Retail Sales for Nov will be the main focus.

  • Advent Software (ADVS) approved 2-for-1 stock split
  • Amgen (AMGN) said top-line results from Xgeva trial showed significantly improved survival in some prostate-cancer patients
  • Baxter International (BAX) approved $2.5b share-repurchase plan
  • Genoptix (GXDX) has put itself up for sale and hired Barclays to run an auction, people with knowledge of matter say
  • Genzyme (GENZ) said it will hold an investor event to discuss the commercial potential of Alemtuzumab on Dec. 20
  • Hexcel (HXL) sees 2011 adj. EPS 90c-98c vs est. 98c
  • InterDigital (IDCC) approved 10-c quarterly dividend
  • Pfizer (PFE) boosted Q dividend to 20c-shr, vs BDVD est. 21c-shr; also elected George Lorch as a non-executive chairman
  • Williams Partners (WPZ) announced plan for 7.5m unit secondary offering


  • One day: Dow +0.16%, S&P +0.00%, Nasdaq (0.48%), Russell (0.61%)
  • Last Week:  Dow +0.25%, S&P +01.28%, Nasdaq +1.78%, Russell +2.70%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +3.84%, S&P +5.07%, Nasdaq +5.07%, Russell +6.2%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +5.94%, S&P +8.7%, Nasdaq +10.82%, Russell +14.19%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +9.59%, S&P +11.24%, Nasdaq +15.68%, Russell +23.46%
  • Sector Performance: Energy +0.79%, Materials +0.52%, Utilities +0.46%, Healthcare +0.07%, Telecom +0.07%, Consumer Staples +0.05%, Industrials +0.01%, Financials (0.12%), Tech (0.32%), and Consumer Discretionary (0.54%)


  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -237 (-1064)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 963.12 (-1.17%)
  • VIX:  17.55 -0.34% YTD PERFORMANCE: -19.05%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.26 from 1.48 -15.04%  


  • TED SPREAD: 17.07 -1.116 (-6.137%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.15% +0.02%  
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.68 from 2.68


  • CRB: 319.87 +1.58%
  • Oil: 88.61 +0.93%
  • COPPER: 420.70 +2.31%
  • GOLD: 1,405.88 +0.69%


  • EURO: 1.3382 +1.18%
  • DOLLAR: 79.284 -0.98%




  • European markets trade mixed to lower as market participants await the latest data points to gauge the economic outlook and ahead of the FOMC meeting later today. Major indices initially fluctuated either side of unchanged
  • Disappointing UK inflation report and significantly higher yields on the Spanish debt auction saw indices drift towards session lows.
  • Declining sectors lead advancers 10-8, with banks leading fallers (1.2%), while healthcare led gainers +0.6%.
  • France Nov EU Harmonised CPI +1.8% y/y vs con +1.8%
  • UK Nov CPI +3.3% y/y vs con +3.2%
  • UK Nov RPI +4.7% y/y vs con +4.4%
  • Eurozone Oct Industrial Production +6.9% y/y vs consensus +7.6% and prior revised +5.4% from +5.2%.  Eurozone Oct Industrial Production +0.7% m/m vs consensus +1.3% and prior revised (0.7%) from (0.9%) 
  • IFO raises German 2011 growth forecast to +2.4% from +1.5%
  • Swiss government raises 2011 GDP forecast to +1.5% vs prior +1.2%, 2010 est GDP +2.7%, guides 2012 GDP +1.9%


  • Most Asian markets went up this morning, though they traded in a tight range.
  • On hopes for higher demand in the holiday season, high tech stocks drove South Korea to close above 2000 for the first time in three years.
  • Mild profit-taking held Japan to a very slight gain, though breadth was strongly positive. The market got a boost when Prime Minister Naoto Kan told ministers to cut the country’s corporate tax rate by 5 percentage points starting next FY, though passage of the bill is not guaranteed.
  • On higher commodity prices, energy shares rose in very light trading in Hong Kong.
  • Australia edged up, though banks fell 1% on profit-taking.  AGL Energy lost 5% after announcing it did not acquire any electricity assets that New South Wales is privatizing.
  • Profit-taking in energy companies kept China flat. Computer software providers gained on government support for the industry. Banks fell on reports that the central bank has extended a temporary 50-bp increase in the reserve-requirement by three months for some banks.
  • Japan October industrial output revised to (2.0%) m/m vs preliminary (1.8%).

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends













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“Knowing others is intelligence, knowing yourself is true wisdom.”

-Lao Tse


The closing of the year elicits contemplation and self-reflection. No, I’m not going to head down the road of providing a list of 10 surprises.  These lists are generally interesting to read, but – ironically – many of the forecasted “surprises” become consensus and are not particularly useful from an investment idea perspective. 


At Hedgeye, we like to think about what is going to happen in the next three month as opposed to where we are going to be 12 month from now.  As we like to say, “You’ve got to play the game that is in front of you.” Playing the game requires discipline and some self reflection to stay grounded.


Of course, as with anything, it is easiest if you have a process or methodology.  On a personal level, yoga is one thing that helps me to enjoy introspection.  In India, the method of self-reflection is called svadhyaya: Sva means “self” and adhyaya means “investigation, inquiry, or education”.  If you practice, svadhyaya it helps you observe moment-to-moment changes in your mind and pose important introspective questions. How are you feeling in your body? Is your mind present? What subject matter draws your mind away? 


When it comes to Hedgeye, we try to have a method for observing moment-to-moment changes in the market and also in our current stances on different themes and investment ideas we generate for our clients.  As we’ve said time and again, clients are a key part of this process and their feedback aids us immeasurably in our efforts to better serve them.


Heading into the New Year, it’s an appropriate time to reflect upon (1) What has transpired? (2) Where are we headed? and (3) What is left undone?   Svadhyaya is what we aspire to at Hedgeye; the ability to investigate, inquire, and educate ourselves and our processes.  Knowing oneself and obtaining true wisdom is likely a goal to be chased but never quite achieved.  If the pursuit of this goal enriches our perspective on markets and processes then that, in and of itself, makes us better on the margin.  And, as we always say, what matters happens on the margin.


Hedgeye’s take on the intermediate-term global macro outlook is three-pronged:

  1. Growth is slowing
  2. Inflation is accelerating
  3. Interconnected risk is compounding

It has been our view for some time that interest rates are going higher.  In terms of timing this call, it is extremely difficult given the scale of government interference in capital markets in recent times.  This call is, quite simply, anchored on our view that global risk is compounding.  Last week the US 10-year Treasury yield reached 3.33%, 28% higher than a month ago, compared with Germany’s borrowing costs rising +27% to 3.03%.  The trend continues today with the US Treasuries getting smoked again this morning as the world continues to see the inflation that Ben Bernanke is not allowed to see.


Yes, inflation is accelerating globally.  People are paying higher prices for what they use to feed themselves, clothe their children, and drive their cars than one year ago.  CPI in China accelerated to a 28-week high of 5.1% year-over-year in November.  Food inflation accelerated to 11.7% year-over-year.


The price of oil recently hit $90 for the first time in two years, gas prices at the pump are at $3.00 and according to Bloomberg, consumers of food made from wheat and corn should brace for higher prices, if history is any guide, after bad weather and a shortage of farmland threaten to create supply “shock waves”.


In keeping with the idea that we must play the game that is in front of us, the “growth is slowing” theme is being challenged by the “fiscal lunacy” of the politicians in Washington who will be adding another $900 billion to the deficit over the next five years.  Now the latest projections are that the USA 2011 budget deficit will hit $1.5 trillion after it was just $1.1 trillion a few months back. 


On the heels of the tax plan, consensus expects that the tax reductions will add 1% to GDP growth in 2011 (one time boost).  Side-effects of Bernanke’s monetary policy will, in my view, go some way towards offsetting this boost.  As the Federal Reserve stokes inflation through Quantitative Guessing, a run up in rates, coupled with a 15-20% decline in home prices in 2011, will mitigate the benefit of lower taxes.


The combination of inflation and ever-increasing debt levels does not encourage growth, it inhibits it!  Jobless Stagflation is a theme we’ve been highlighting for months and it will become clearer to many as 2011 proceeds.


I believe it would be beneficial for the administration to consider svadhyaya as a New Year Resolution.  The government today is an active participant in the markets.  To what end this participation?  Is there an end to this participation?  If government’s role is to protect employment levels and maintain price stability, I think the scoreboard speaks for itself on both counts. 


Projections offered by the administration in 2009 as to where unemployment would peak during this crisis have been far surpassed.  If government’s role is to somehow protect and enhance the life that its citizens lead, the almost 43 million people surviving on food stamps may have something to say about the administration’s success on that score.  It’s not that the administration it not trying; it is relentless in its pursuit of what it thinks is needed to bolster the obviously fragile economy. 


I do not believe it would take an otherworldly bout of introspection for the administration to realize that these efforts are not working and, more pointedly, they are expensive.  The public sector furor defined by massive government balance sheets has taken hold in Europe and you can bank on it coming into the fold in the U.S. in the not-too-distant future. 


David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital was interviewed by Charlie Rose on December 6th and highlighted some “unfinished business” that was left unresolved from the last crisis.  Einhorn is a thoughtful person and offered a metaphor for the economy at present of being “between two storms”.  The private sector storm was first but the public sector crisis is coming.  I don’t know David Einhorn and he may not be a yoga aficionado, but I would hazard a guess that svadhyaya would not be a completely foreign concept to him. 


Function is disaster; finish in style


Howard Penney





December 13, 2010






  • With a UK VAT increase taking effect on January 4th, retailers and manufacturers are expected to bear costs beyond the expected supply/demand changes resulting from the 2.5% tax increase.  In fact, it is estimated that it will cost UK retailers £35 million just to re-label and re-price items in inventory once the tax increase takes effect.  Even worse is the timing of such efforts which will take place during the traditional  post Christmas clearance period.
  • According to an Aon Hewitt survey, 8 in 10 Gen Y (ages 18-35) workers will not meet all of their financial needs in retirement unless there is a significant change in savings and investing behaviors.  Part of the problem arises from Gen Y savings habits, which leave only 50% of Gen Y workers participating in eligible defined contribution plans.  Of those who do participate, the average pre-tax contribution rate is just 5.3% of pay.
  • At the opening of a new store in Vancouver over the weekend, Louis Vuitton management noted that they set price based on costs – period. Throughout the downturn, Vuitton was the only brand not discounted at department stores. As such, with many retailers eying substantial cost inflation in 2011 the luxury retailer should prove to be a solid barometer in the coming year.



Retailers Eye Openings Again - Are brick-and-mortar stores inching back into expansion mode? Traditional retailers have taken something of a beating over the last few years, battered by everything from the recession and the newly frugal masses to the growing popularity of e-commerce and mobile commerce. Lord & Taylor’s plan to open its first new full-price store in 30 years, in Yonkers, N.Y., bodes well for the industry. Other positive indicators include the dearth of available space for pop-up shops — a recession-era phenomenon that gave retailers the flexibility to rent month-to-month — due to more permanent leases being signed. But for every upbeat trend there are caveats — accommodations to the postrecession economy and reminders that the free-spending days are still a thing of the past. For example, on the prime stretch of Madison Avenue last year there were 15 available stores. All were leased this year, albeit at lower rents. Retailers may be opening stores, but many of them are smaller than in the past, or existing stores are being carved up and downsized. Saks Inc. has shuttered underperforming units, while Charming Shoppes Inc. this year plans to close 100 to 120 Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug and Catherines units; The Jones Group said it would shut 165 stores, and Foot Locker Inc. closed 106 underproductive units after shuttering 179 in 2009.Nonetheless, the mood at last week’s International Council of Shopping Centers Meeting and Deal Making here was upbeat — a far cry from the grim confab two years ago at the height of the recession. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  What’s more surprising is not that retailers are once again building confidence to grow again (plenty of cash and not much else to do with it), but rather that more stores haven’t closed over the past few years.  Yet another reason why inventory management is clearly the key to retail success.


PPR Squelches Speculation of Interest in Burberry - French retail-to-luxury group PPR said it is not interested in purchasing British luxury brand Burberry, quashing speculation that had goosed Burberry shares this week. “Burberry is a very beautiful brand, but it does not match the selection criteria for our luxury portfolio,” PPR spokeswoman Charlotte Judet said. PPR this week moved one step closer to its stated goal of selling its retail assets in order to fund expansion in the lifestyle segment, which should eventually dwarf its luxury division Gucci Group. The group announced on Thursday it had entered into exclusive negotiations with South Africa’s Steinhoff International Holding Ltd. for the sale of its furniture chain Conforama for 1.2 billion euros, or $1.58 billion at current exchange rates, in cash and the payment of its debt. Talk of the impending sales has fueled speculation PPR was interested in using some of the proceeds to snap up a new brand. Burberry and Californian outdoor sports lifestyle brand Quiksilver have been cited as key targets. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  Active week for PPR speculation.  When a company says they plan on growing via acquisition it certainly makes the rumors easy to come up with. 


VF, Kellwood Said Eyeing Rock & Republic - VF Corp. and Kellwood Co. are both in the hunt for bankrupt Rock & Republic. According to financial and market sources, the discussions have intensified over the last several weeks. Executives at both VF and Kellwood declined comment. Both firms have taken a look at the distressed avant-garde premium denim brand before, but walked away because they wanted the assets, not founder Michael Ball. He is said to have wanted both an equity stake and a creative role in the reorganized firm, according to those familiar with the talks. So what changed?  Sources said Ball lost his leverage when a $60 million deal with Bluestar Alliance, a private equity firm that has since morphed into a brand management firm, fell apart last month. That deal would have allowed Ball to remain in a continuing role with a restructured Rock & Republic. Executives at Bluestar could not be reached for comment. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Kellwood has been both actively and vocally looking to acquire a premium denim brand for more than 2-years now and is the more likely candidate of the two in our view.  For starters, VF is looking for a medium-sized brand with $300-$500mm in sales (R&R is closer to $100mm) and the reality is that there would be a fair amount of overlap with Sevens. Aside from the brand’s asset value, it appears that Ball’s involvement is proving to be a significant hurdle for prospective buyers – a reality the founder may soon have to come to grips with if a deal is to be done.


Q&A With COLM’s Tim Boyle - After a multiyear investment in personnel and product, President and CEO Tim Boyle and his team are dramatically growing their footwear business and redefining what Columbia means to outdoor retailers and consumers. Boyle said the company is ready to take its place in the top specialty outdoor independents and chains through a new focus on technically advanced product. That follows a major effort to move its brands out of the value-oriented and price-driven retailers it had become known for. This summer, the firm acquired OutDry Technologies S.r.l., a Milan-based group that created a patented waterproofing method. And last month, the Columbia brand rolled out Omni-Heat, a three-prong set of cold-weather technologies that it supported with its largest advertising campaign to date, a global effort that encompasses print, online and in-store elements. The growth agenda should pay off in footwear, which accounts for $238.5 million in sales — roughly 17 percent of the total business — on a trailing 12-month basis as of Sept. 30. "We've always talked about the enormous opportunity for our company for footwear," Boyle said in an exclusive interview with Footwear News. "We've been selling it since 1993, so we've had a few different people in the company managing it. And even though the business has grown, we've just never had the team in place that could literally explode it. And now we have that team in place. It should be our biggest product [category] ever." <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: The company has made a big bet here not only on the product itself, but also the efforts to support it both at the staff level as well as externally with targeted marketing spend. Footwear remains the most significant growth opportunity over the intermediate-term with growth in the sporting goods channel both in apparel and footwear a close second.


Rising Costs Challenge Execs - Can footwear manufacturers manage rising sourcing costs without sizeable price increases?Projections vary, though virtually all industry experts agree that production costs including raw materials, labor, duties and freight, as well as costs associated with the re- valuation of the Chinese renminbi, are set to rise steeply in the New Year."People are calling it the perfect storm," said Deckers Outdoor Corp. COO Zohar Ziv. "It's unusual [for it all to be happening at the same time]. When we're coming out of a global recession, you would think there would be more labor availability, but the contrary has happened. "Matt Priest, president of the Footwear Distributors & Retailers of America, said his members are bracing for an increase ranging from 8 percent to 20 percent. The looming question is what this will mean for wholesale costs. So far — in the midst of a still uncertain economy — few have proposed across-the-board wholesale price increases. Instead, many have said they will mitigate any increase with operating efficiencies."Managing [sourcing cost increases] and not having some [wholesale] cost increase will be difficult but it is manageable," Priest said. Ziv said Deckers was exploring alternative sourcing areas such as northern China, and next year will begin some production in Vietnam. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Operating efficiencies were commonly highlighted as a possible offset in the 1H of 2010, but with retailers now staring at HSD-LDD cost increases, it’s been a while since we’ve heard that as the leading rebuttal from retailers compared to price increases. The reality is that consumers will see these pressures at the store in the form of higher prices to some extent, with the balance absorbed by the supply chain. Just how much is absorbed by whom remains a key theme and critical question across retail as we head into 2011.


No Fear Sued Over Unpaid Rent - Several shopping centers in Southern California have sued No Fear, the action sports brand based in Carlsbad, CA, for falling months behind in rent for its retail outlets, according to a report in the Los Angeles Times. An attorney for No Fear Retail Stores Inc. blamed the late payments on the difficult economy and said the company was working with shopping centers to renegotiate leases. The lawyer said the rents are well above market levels and were signed during better times. According to the report, the Irvine Spectrum and Block at Orange both filed lawsuits in Orange County Superior Court; and shopping centers in Arcadia, West Covina and Valencia filed suits in Los Angeles County Superior Court. No Fear opened seven stores in late 2008 and early 2009. giving it 53 retail stores in seven states, most of them in California. No Fear also in 2009 agreed to acquire Canadian eyewear and apparel company Gatorz Inc. and emerge as a publicly traded company in Canada. The deal still needs regulatory approval in Canada. <SportsOneSource>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Last we checked, renegotiations are typically more productive when the rent check is still coming in.  Perhaps early indications of more supply to come in CA?


EU delays schemes to Offer Pakistan trade concessions - Asian countries and the European Union are seeking a compromise on a controversial EU plan to offer flood-devastated Pakistan trade concessions particularly on textiles as relief in January 2011. Bangladesh, India, Peru and Vietnam have refused to endorse an EU request for a WTO waiver at the 153-nation Geneva-based World Trade Organisation which is required for the temporary measures to take effect. EU leaders, who backed the idea in September, were hoping that the measures would come into effect on 1 January. “The EC (European Commission) officials are in touch with their Indian counterparts on this and we will satisfactorily resolve this matter,” India prime minister Manmohan Singh said. “We support all international efforts to provide succour to the flood victims of Pakistan through direct aid and grant assistance. On the other part we too had offered and remain willing to support the victims of natural calamities through relief assistance,” he added. <FashionNetAsia>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Offering aid is one thing, but offering concessions that could likely impact other countries is altogether different. Accounting for only 2% of EU’s imported home textiles last year compared to Pakistan’s 17% contribution, it’s easy to see why India is so concerned over any competitive advantage given awarded to Pakistan.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.43%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.35%