Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
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Compounding the causal factor of the BOE’s market expectations mismatch was an epic short squeeze in the US Treasury market that largely had to do with off-side consensus positioning for a hawkish #Quad2 in Q4 (OCT) US Jobs Report: A) The net SHORT position (CFTC futures/options contracts) in the UST 10yr note was -243,142 contracts… and With weekly US Jobless Claims slowing to multiple Cycle Lows in October, it didn’t take a data-driven genius to expect the big ROC (rate of change) #acceleration in US labor data. I guess all of the geniuses shorted TLT BEFORE the news! |
