In this exclusive clip from our recent presentation from The Outlook, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down why we've been domestically positioned for Quad 2 (economic growth and inflation accelerating, simultaneously) throughout Q4, along with identifying potential catalysts.
Watch as he analyzes the underlying economic data serving as the impetus for our macro call, as well as the allocations best-suited to take advantage in your portfolio.
“The inventory that didn’t print in GDP when the economy was slowing during Q3 is coming back,” exclaims McCullough. “If anything I think that I’m too low on our Wall Street high growth estimate for Q4.”
Transcript
McCullough: Today's supply constraints are tomorrow's amplifier. This is a very basic relationship that all traditional, even economists should understand. Old Wall fully loaded again. So again, inventories, which is the gray line chase, the backlog, the backlogs, the demand.
That's where the black line is. There's a shitload of demand. It's not like this isn't fake news. This doesn't look like anything other than what the market's already telling you. So that's another way to look at the gray line is going to catch up.
And how fast it gets catches up. I don't care. Don't overthink it, all right. On Slide #58 already showed you the swing and say it again. And one highlight, in addition to that is that the main line of the US economic acceleration or the reopening, you want to call it reopening re-acceleration.
It's awkward, too, is the bottom line on the bottom on the right chart that's called services consumption. That's the biggest component of the US economy that we're talking about.
When you're going to go buy whatever a bag of beers and go buy a Patriots ticket or whatever you're going to do, that's the services economy that's consuming goods that aren't the durable goods that are already ripped. Everybody knows that everybody's got their barbecue and whatever they're doing, it's the service economy. Stupid, OK? So again, there's a lot more upside to that because humans do things on a non-linear basis.
They're not linear like my old Yale models. OK. So again, think about that and hopefully you enjoyed some of my bad jokes and you have some good questions.
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Click here to watch the full interview. This free investing webcast is part of a Outlook series consisting of "Real Conversations" interviews between CEO Keith McCullough and outside guests, Hedgeye Macro Themes deep dives and "The Pitch" – in which 10 Hedgeye analysts "pitch" Keith their favorite stock idea. |
