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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - December 7, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or -1.89% downside to 1200 and 0.97% upside to 1235. 

  • Obama, GOP reach a deal on taxes by extending the Bush tax cuts for two years
  • emerging market demand, Barron’s said
  • AGL Resources, (AGL) and NICOR to combine in $8.6B transaction
  •  FT writes that oil is forecast to pass its current two-year high above $90 a barrel to beyond $100 – this would hinder economic recovery
  • Barron’s reports that an Irish tax hike could hurt some U.S. software stocks.  ADBE, VMW, MENT, MFE, SYMC and others are mentioned in the report
  • William Conway said that Carlyle is gearing up for an IPO to boost buyout-fund capital, according to Bloomberg
  • WikiLeaks founder, Julian Assange, was arrested in London

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.17%), S&P (0.13%), Nasdaq +0.13%, Russell +0.59%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +3.24%, S&P +3.61%, Nasdaq +3.87%, Russell +4.66%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +5.32%, S&P +7.18%, Nasdaq +9.55%, Russell +12.53%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +8.96%, S&P +9.69%, Nasdaq +14.36%, Russell +21.66%
  • Sector Performance: Energy +0.26%, Tech +0.07%, Materials +0.02%, Consumer Discretionary (0.01%), Telecom (0.03%), Industrials (0.18%), Financials (0.22%), Consumer Staples (0.27%), Utilities (0.47%), and Healthcare (0.68%)

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -42 (-770)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 803.64 (-11.38%)
  • VIX:  18.02-7.12% YTD PERFORMANCE: -16.90%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.32 from 1.31 +0.37%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 17.77 -0.102 (-0.569%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.15% +0.01%  
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.53 from 2.54

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 317.29 +0.360%
  • Oil: 88.92 -0.30%
  • COPPER: 400.65 +0.19%
  • GOLD: 1,414.90 +0.61%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3297 -0.87%
  • DOLLAR: 79.638 +0.33%

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • Europe is trading up at the moment.  News of the Bush-era tax cuts being extended is trumping sovereign debt concerns for now
  • Irish budget vote takes place tomorrow.  Passage of the vote is a requirement of the EU bailout
  • Troubles continuing across the broader Eurozone  but Merkel holding firm and rejecting the proposals for a bigger fund and Europe-wide bonds
  • Tesco increased 2.2% as the retailer said that 3Q sales rose 8.8%, led by growth outside of the U.K. 
  • Unilever also gained on an upgrade
  • U.K. Factory Production grew more than forecast in October.  Output rose 0.6% from September.  This was the strongest growth for seven months.
  • Russia moved closer to WTO membership after signing an MOU with the EU that set the terms to resolve all EU-Russia bilateral issues. 

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Markets ended mostly higher today following Obama extending the Bush tax cuts and Ireland prepared for a budget vote
    • China Shanghai A Share finished up +0.65%
    • Korea KOSPI 100 finished up +0.55%
    • Japan Nikkei 225 finished down -0.26%
  • Japanese stocks declined on fears that the yen will resume strengthening and hurt exports
  • Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%, market gained +0.77%
  • Bloomberg reports that speculation is mounting that China may raise rates this weekend

Howard Penney

Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends 127

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P levels 12.7

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - vix12.7

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - usd12.7

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - oil12.7

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - gold12.7

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - copper12.7