TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - December 6, 2010


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or -2.1% downside to 1199 and 0.35% upside to 1229.  Equity futures are trading below fair value following Friday's late recovery sparked by a leak of Fed Chairman Bernanke's interview for 60 Minutes which went out overnight. Bernanke said the Fed could purchase Treasuries beyond the scheduled $600B on the back of slow normalization of the US unemployment rate suggesting QE3 is a possibility.

In what is expected to be a quiet start to the week, apparent problems within the European Union as how to best to tackle the deepening sovereign debt crisis likely to dominate trading.

  • Human Genome Sciences Inc. (HGSI) and Glaxo said FDA has extended Benlysta PDUFA target date from Dec. 9 2010 to Mar. 10 and requested additional information
  • J.M. Smucker (SJM) may rise ~7% over next year as variety of food offerings, strong cash position offset rising coffee costs, Barron’s reported
  • Massey Energy (MEE) said President Baxter Phillips Jr. will succeed Don Blankenship as ceo after he retires on Dec. 31
  • Oshkosh (OSK) won $413.2m contract for 1,800 tactical vehicles for the Army National Guard, U.S. Defense Department said
  • Urban Outfitters (URBN) may not be a bargain vs peers, Barron’s reported in its “The Trader” column
  • Whirlpool (WHR) may rise to $100 or higher amid growing emerging market demand, Barron’s said


  • One day: Dow +0.17%, S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.47%, Russell +0.69%
  • Last Week:  Dow +2.62%, S&P +2.97%, Nasdaq +2.24%, Russell +3.23%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +3.42%, S&P +3.74%, Nasdaq +3.73%, Russell +4.05%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +5.51%, S&P +7.32%, Nasdaq +9.41%, Russell +11.87%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +9.15%, S&P +9.83%, Nasdaq +14.2%, Russell +20.95%
  • Sector Performance (last week): Materials +6.14%, Energy +5.30%, Financials +5.27%, Industrials +4.10%, Consumer Discretionary +3.06%, Tech +2.29%, Healthcare +1.67%, Consumer Staples +1.09% and Utilities +1.34%,


  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 728 (-542)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 906.80 (-18.71%)
  • VIX:  18.01 -7.12% YTD PERFORMANCE: -16.93%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.31 from 1.58 -16.88%


  • TED SPREAD: 17.36 0.203 (1.182%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.14% -0.02%  
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.54 from 2.44


  • CRB: 316.16 +1.30% (+4.99% last week)
  • Oil: 89.19 +1.35% (+6.48% last week)
  • COPPER: 399.90 +0.50% (+6.29% last week)
  • GOLD: 1,406.28 +1.39% (+3.40% last week)


  • EURO: 1.3414 +1.59%% (+1.30% last week)
  • DOLLAR: 79.377 -1.15% (-1.22% last week)




  • European markets have pared or reversed initial modest gains as the regions debt worries weighed ahead of the EuroZone Finance Ministers meeting later today.
  • Peripheral European indices led the fall, with Spain and Italy down over (1%) and debt spreads widened modestly after last week's enthusiasm over ECB bond buying waned.
  • Reports that JC Flowers had pulled away from a Spanish Bank investment also hit sentiment.
  • Declining sectors lead advancers 11-7 with banks and retailers leading the fallers.
  • Basic resources and chemicals lead gainers.
  • Major indices currently trade close to session lows.


  • Nikkei (0.11%); Hang Seng (0.36%); Shanghai Composite +0.52%
  • Most markets closed mixed.
  • China's shift in policy to "prudent" from "appropriately relaxed" is continuing to dictate trading patterns.
  •  Japan was mixed, opening by falling slightly on a stronger yen, but bargain-hunting quickly limited losses. Volume fell to the lowest since late Oct.
  • South Korea ended flat, with car-parts makers rising on the finalized trade agreement between the country and the US

Howard Penney

Managing Director


THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends 126


THE DAILY OUTLOOK - equities 126








THE DAILY OUTLOOK - gold 1 126


THE DAILY OUTLOOK - copper 126

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more