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SBUX – CONTINUING TO FIND VEHICLES FOR GROWTH

Conclusion:  We continue to be long SBUX in the Hedgeye portfolio.

 

It would be hard to dispute that fiscal 2010 was a strong and pivotal year for Starbucks.  In addition, with about 60% of analysts now recommending the stock as a buy versus a low of about 30% in mid-2009 and with only 2% short interest in the name, I doubt few would try.  That being said, with the stock now trading at 10.5x on a NTM EV/EBITDA basis, there has been some question about whether the company can maintain its current momentum.  Following SBUX management’s presentations yesterday, I am even more confident in the company’s long-term growth prospects than I was previously.

 

Fiscal 2010: The Year of VIA


Although the VIA brand was only net neutral to earnings in fiscal 2010, the success the company has enjoyed with the brand in such a short amount of time (generated about $135 million in global sales in the retail and CPG channels in its first year) has given the company a renewed confidence in its ability to pursue new avenues of growth.  The strong rollout of VIA has proven that the company can successfully leverage its retail store base to spur trial and awareness of a new brand in order to drive even more significant growth through the CPG channel (the basis for the company’s new “blueprint for profitable growth”). 

 

Starbucks employed the direct distribution model for the first time with the VIA rollout and the approach yielded such strong results that the company has decided to use a direct model, in addition to its already established license and JV partners, for the entire CPG channel, effective March 1, 2011.  SBUX has partnered with Acosta, a proven selling agent with nearly 100% coverage of the food, drug and mass channels in the U.S., to pursue this direct model approach and has ensured a smooth transition following the termination of the Kraft distribution agreement.  Through its new partnership with Acosta, Starbucks will be responsible for product development, manufacturing, distribution and marketing while Acosta will be responsible for the selling and merchandising of SBUX’s products within the grocery channel.  Although I am concerned about issues that may surface during the initial transition phase, over time, it should prove beneficial for Starbucks to be more vertically integrated and, as the company highlighted, to have one marketing voice across the entire CPG channel.  For reference, licensed sales of packaged coffee and tea mostly sold through the Kraft partnership accounted for 23% of specialty revenues in fiscal 2010 (or about 4% of total SBUX revenues).

 

The success of VIA, though still early days, has also proven that the company can develop and grow brands.  Outside of the $1 billion VIA brand potential, the company is significantly investing behind Seattle’s Best Coffee in both the retail store and grocery segments (SBC rebrand and relaunch), Frappuccino and Tazo Tea, among others.  These are all brands that the company thinks will drive tremendous upside over time, and again, leveraging trial within Starbucks’ retail stores will encourage growth.

 

Outside of developing brands organically and driving increased profitability of already established brands, Starbucks made it extremely clear that it would do an acquisition, either big or small, if it found a company that fit its business model.  Specifically, Starbucks is looking at all options and wants to be a leader in coffee, in all coffee categories.

 

Diversified Growth Engines


U.S. – Although Starbucks recently closed hundreds of stores in the U.S. and significantly reduced new unit growth, management highlighted that the U.S., which currently accounts for about 70% of total revenues and operating income, will continue to be an essential component of ongoing growth.  The company expects to add 100 net new stores in fiscal 2011 and accelerate unit growth in fiscal 2012 and beyond.  Growth in the U.S. will expand beyond unit growth, however, as the company remains focused on growing business within its existing store base through new store designs, increasing drive-thru business, new products, increasing capacity and expanding dayparts. 

 

U.S. margins are expected to increase 100-200 bps in fiscal 2011, on top of the nearly 640 bp increase in FY10 to 17.4%.  And, margins are expected to remain strong beyond 2011 with the company targeting long-term margins in the upper teens to approaching 20%.

 

International – This segment is expected to drive the next leg of growth for Starbucks as the company implements the lessons learned in the U.S.  This growth will come from an increased focus on operations and improving execution within the existing store base as well as accelerated new unit growth (primarily licensed store growth). 

 

On top of the expected 400 net new stores in fiscal 2011, the company specified that it is already investing now to build the real estate pipeline for 2012, 2013 and beyond.

  • Established markets: Canada and Japan – These markets are healthy and well poised for growth now.
  • Key European markets: UK, Ireland, France and Germany – These markets need work (apply U.S. learnings) before accelerating growth.
  • Emerging markets: China, Brazil, India and Russia – These markets provide tremendous growth opportunities but also require that Starbucks invest ahead of the growth curve.  The company continues to think that China will become the second largest market for the company outside of the U.S. (targeting 1,500 stores by 2015 from about 400 units now).

International margins are expected to increase 100-200 bps in FY11 as the company builds on the momentum of 2H10 and move into the mid-to-upper teens range over the next 3-5 years.

 

CPG – Following on the recent success of VIA, management seemed most excited about the potential of the CPG business.  The company currently only generates CPG revenues in 10 of the 54 countries in which it operates.  This, alone, is a huge opportunity for the company’s new direct model.  Once the company builds the internal capabilities, Starbucks will have the experience and knowledge to move into any market with its CPG business.  This, however, will take some time. 

 

The biggest near-term benefit for the CPG business comes from the VIA learnings and stems from the company’s ability to drive CPG growth by utilizing its retail store base.  The company can drive increased trial of already established brands (Frappuccino, Tazo Tea, Discoveries), newly developed brands or acquired brands in its stores before pushing them through the CPG channel.  Going forward, management is also convinced that as the CPG business growth accelerates, it will drive business back into its retail stores.  The company even mentioned the potential for a loyalty card that would allow cross-shopping and rewards for purchases of Starbucks products in both the grocery and retail store channels.

 

CPG margins are expected to be 30-35% in fiscal 2011 (35.3% in FY10).  Margins will remain under pressure in FY11 as Starbucks continues to invest behind VIA and the company is also expecting to incur some one-time costs associated with the termination of the Kraft distribution agreement.  That being said, the company expects the move to a direct model to be highly accretive in 2012 and beyond.

 

In sum, Starbucks is definitely well poised for growth.  This growth will continue to come from its core retail store base, in addition to new avenues of growth, which should become more important on a go forward basis.  To that end, I continue to be comfortable with our long position in the Hedgeye portfolio. 

 

Like anything else, however, there are some near-term challenges worth highlighting:

  • Expectations are high: The street is at $1.49 per share for FY11 relative to management’s $1.41-$1.47 guidance.
  • Coffee prices are high:  Management stated that coffee accounts for 15-20% of the company’s overall cost structure and that current prices are not sustainable.  If coffee prices move higher, however, margins will come under pressure and management may have to again raise prices.
  • The company is lapping its first quarter of positive comp growth in fiscal 1Q11.
  • Kraft transition disruptions: Management has said it will be a smooth transition, but there are likely to be some hiccups.
  • Consumption Cannonball: A weakened consumer environment would likely impact the company’s current comp sales momentum.

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Shorting SPY Here: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITION: Short SPY

 

I shorted the SP500 (SPY) again at 1043AM EST today.

 

As a reminder, Hedgeye’s intermediate-term global macro outlook has 3 core components: 

  1. 1.       Global growth is slowing
  2. 2.       Global inflation is accelerating
  3. 3.       Interconnected risk is compounding 

My refreshed lines of immediate-term TRADE support and resistance lines are 1197 and 1217, respectively.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Shorting SPY Here: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - 2


ISLE 2Q FY 2011 CONFERENCE CALL NOTES

In-line quarter; Florida helped results.

 

 

“Revenues in our markets were generally flat during the quarter...We are pleased to have achieved modestly increased results in Iowa, Missouri and Mississippi.  Management initiatives in Lake Charles to control costs and cut out unprofitable marketing efforts led to an increase in earnings despite decreased net revenues.  In Florida, we were able to take advantage of the gaming tax rates and modify our marketing efforts to achieve significant year over year improvement. In Black Hawk, we had a significant decrease in EBITDA due to a major competitive expansion in the market, which recently had its one year anniversary.  Our midweek revenues and hotel occupancy were impacted the most significantly.  We continue to refine our marketing programs and cost savings initiatives, and believe these changes will lead to more positive results in the coming periods. Including our recently acquired Vicksburg property, our operating costs decreased by $1.0 million, or 0.8%.  Excluding Vicksburg, we decreased our same-store operating cost structure by $5.3 million, or 4.0%, during the quarter.  Overall, we remain dedicated to keeping our costs tight and marketing to our most profitable customers until the economy improves."

- Virginia McDowell, President and COO of ISLE

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • "While we have recently seen positive signs in certain economic indicators and hope this positive news will continue, we believe that discretionary consumer spending could continue to lag these trends."
  • Corp & development expenses: $10.9MM ($12.3MM in F2Q 10)
  • Non-cash stock comp: $2.4MM ($2.6MM in F2Q 10)
  • $64.1MM in cash; $1.26BN in debt
  • Interest expense: $23.4MM ($17.9MM in F2Q 10) primarily as a result of increased borrowing costs and increased borrowings related to the acquisition of Rainbow Casino in Vicksburg.
  • Capex: $13MM--all maintenance
    • Capex for remainder of FY2011: $22MM
    • Cape Girardeau Capex: $10MM
  • PA license decision: Dec 16 or early January

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Cape Girardeau: construction will start in summer of 2011; completion in 2012
  • Cautiously optimistic on consumer spending environment; rebound in jobs market is necessary for spending growth.
  • Other line in FQ2 2010: Pittsburgh Penguins receivable
  • EPS: -0.06 comparable with -0.18 last year
  • $1.26BN debt (85MM outstanding on revolver) $813MM in term loans; 357MM under the 7% bond indenture; 5MM other
    • Leverage ratio: 6.9x
    • Interest coverage: 2.3x
    • Available credit  facility: 106MM
  • Cape Girardeau funding: FCF and existing credit facility

Q & A

  • FY2011 maintenance capex: half of maintenance capex is slot-related (incl. conversion kits)
  • Pompano: still trying to find right marketing mix; good run rate going forward; big improvement in mid-week business
    • Competition: Coconut Creek expansion will include hotel; but still needs state approval
  • Colorado competition: had tough Q; had tough comps; weak mid-week business; benefited from increased retail play
  • Interested in Riviera Casino in Black Hawk if it becomes available? No.
  • Discontinued operations: income tax audits: favorable income tax from UK operations; could see a little more of this in the future.
  • Bettendorf: reopened highway helped the property; saw weekend business recover; had increase in mid-week convention business to better utilization of convention facilities.
  • Davenport: competitor pressured mid-tier  business. If offered $140-160MM for Davenport, then ISLE is interested. Agreement with operator runs to 2019.
  • Margin improvement: primarily due to tax decrease in FL and targeted marketing programs and cost containment measures.
  • Weather was not abnormal in October
  • Lake Charles market:
    • Upcoming competitor $450MM Mojito Pointe will have an impact
    • Sees pressure from Houston market and from competitors regarding mid-week promotions
  • $50MM Nemacolin project--funding through revolver and FCF
    • Each year will pay a $350K-500K all-in fee (base fee and % of revenue fee to the resort); rest of earnings will go to ISLE
  • Will amend senior credit facility (July 2012)
  • Not worried about January covenant 7.4x even with the two new projects
  • Biloxi: benefited from Alabama closures; still highly competitive; benefited from the double-digit declines in Pensacola market
  • Apples-apples quarter for Caruthersville would see 13% EBITDA growth YoY when one excludes the $950,000 tax effect  in FY2Q10
  • Q had Increase in retail play is a result of consumer confidence increasing; best example is Florida
  • More greenfield projects and property transactions possible
  • ROIC for the new projects: high teens; Cape G will be similar to Boonville
  • Operating costs down by $30MM; sees more flow-through once revenues recover

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Gilly in WMT. Tough Fringe Competitor for CRI

Is it me? Or did GIL just say in Q&A that infant category was down meaningfully this year at its biggest customer, but have since made changes and now sales are up dd. Carter’s…are you listening to this??? Same product and same customer. And let's be real, the category is not growing by 30% inside Wal-Mart.


TALES OF THE TAPE: SBUX, PEET, CMG, BWLD

There were several important moves in restaurant stocks yesterday that I’d like to call out.  While the day’s change for the S&P 500 was up 2.16%, restaurant stocks saw plenty of divergence.  Brinker and Starbucks both outperformed the market.  As was pointed out in our sales team’s Best Ideas email this month, EAT and SBUX are two of our favorite names.

 

SBUX:  During its investor conference in New York yesterday, management outlined plans to accelerate international openings (particularly in China), expand CPG globally, and improve multi-daypart sales in their stores.  Chairman, president, and CEO Howard Shultz also suggested that the company would look to make acquisitions “small and large” that are compatible with the company’s growth strategy.

 

PEET: Peet’s was also up on strong volume.  This is a great company that is operationally very strong and is being touted as a possible target for Starbucks given their distribution capabilities. 

 

EAT: Brinker has been outperforming on a one week and thirty-day basis and yesterday proved to be a good day for the stock, finishing up 3.5% on high volume.  My thesis is for sales stabilization and margin gains at Chili’s as we head into 2HFY11 to coincide nicely with the lapping of menu changes that caused sales to decline last year.  Additionally “2 for $20” is to become permanent and Chili’s will be rolling out a new lunch menu focused on gaining traction in a day part that has been challenging for the company.  Please refer to our Blackbook on EAT for a deeper dive on this thesis.

 

CMG:  This stock continues to perform strongly, finishing up on strong volume yesterday despite trading in the red for much of the day.  CMG’s ability to drive strong sales is trumping any underlying concern about the company’s commodity exposure.  

 

BWLD: Buffalo Wild Wings declined sharply yesterday on strong volume.  The companies favorable cost of goods sold outlook should continue for the next quarter or two, on a year-over-year basis. 

 

TALES OF THE TAPE: SBUX, PEET, CMG, BWLD - stocks122

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


INITIAL CLAIMS JUMP 29K (26K AFTER REVISION); SEASONAL FACTORS AT WORK

Initial Claims Rise from YTD Lows - Seasonal Factors Likely to Dominate Through Year-End

The headline initial claims number rose 26k last week to 436k.  Rolling claims fell to 431k, 5.75k lower than the previous week.  Rolling claims hit a new YTD low, but the reported series moved off of the lows significantly. We continue to look for claims to in the 375-400k range before unemployment can meaningfully improve.  Seasonal factors appear to dominate into the year-end, as the third chart below shows. Over the next few weeks, the pattern of the last two years suggests that claims will rise further before falling sharply in the last weeks of the year. 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS JUMP 29K (26K AFTER REVISION); SEASONAL FACTORS AT WORK - 2

 

INITIAL CLAIMS JUMP 29K (26K AFTER REVISION); SEASONAL FACTORS AT WORK - 3

 

INITIAL CLAIMS JUMP 29K (26K AFTER REVISION); SEASONAL FACTORS AT WORK - 4

 

In the table below, we chart US equity correlations with Initial Claims, the Dollar Index, and US 10Y Treasury yields on a weekly basis going back 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS JUMP 29K (26K AFTER REVISION); SEASONAL FACTORS AT WORK - 5

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur


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