The guest commentary below was written by Jesse Felder of The Felder Report.
A few years ago, I suggested the gold miners, which I referred to as the BANG stocks (Barrick, Agnico Eagle and Newmont/Goldcorp), could soon make the FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google/Alphabet) look tame.
Over the next couple of years, that trade worked pretty well. Over the past year, though, investors have once again abandoned BANG in favor of FANG. As a result, the major gold mining companies have become very cheap again.
Another way to view the pervasive pessimism towards the group is to simply plot the relative performance of the gold mining stocks along with the gold price.
With the latter soaring over the past five years you would think that the former would be outperforming and yet the miners’ performance has been absolutely pathetic compared to the S&P 500.
Part of this is due to the stellar performance of the broad stock market, led by the likes of FANG, but this gap could be closed by an equity bear market (driven by an earnings recession next year).
It is also likely due to the fact that investors believe the bull market in gold is now over.
But if you believe, as I do, that gold prices are only in the middle of a new longer-term bull market (as the history of prior bull markets for the precious metal would suggest) then gold miner shares are just far too cheap at today’s prices.
This is a Hedgeye Guest Contributor piece written by Jesse Felder and reposted from The Felder Report blog. Felder has been managing money for over 20 years. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Today he lives in Bend, Oregon and publishes The Felder Report. This piece does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Hedgeye.