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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - December 2, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or -0.75% downside to 1197 and 0.33% upside to 1210.  Equity futures are trading back above fair value after the Dow on Wednesday posted its 6th largest points and percentage gain this year as strong data seen at home, China and in Europe encouraged increased risk.  Today's focus will center on the ECB meeting where there is growing expectations the ECB will unveil new or additional measures to prevent contagion within the eurozone sovereign debt markets.  Weekly jobless claims and Nov retail chain store sales are also scheduled for release.

  • Aeropostale (ARO) 3Q sales below est. 
  • Collective Brands (PSS) 3Q EPS, Rev beat est.
  • Finisar (FNSR) sees 3Q adj EPS above est.
  • Jo-Ann Stores (JAS) 4Q gross margin improvement less than 3Q, sees costs increasing
  • Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) boosted year adj. op. income forecast
  • Merck (MRK)’s Proscar for treatment of enlarged-prostate
  • failed to win the support of a U.S. advisory panel for use in
  • preventing prostate cancer
  • Regal Cinemas (RGC) boosted qtr div to 21c from 18c; declares $1.40 special div
  • Semtech (SMTC) Sees 4Q rev. below est.
  • Sequenom (SQNM) Plans secondary offering
  • Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) receives CRL from FDA on NDA for ezoga

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +2.27%, S&P +2.16%, Nasdaq +2.05%, Russell 2000 +2.22%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +2.27%, S&P +2.16%, Nasdaq +2.05%, Russell +2.22%;
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +4.34%, S&P +5.68%, Nasdaq +7.63%, Russell +9.91%;
  • Year-to-date: Dow +7.94%, S&P +8.16%, Nasdaq +12.35%, Russell +18.83%
  • Sector Performance: Utilities +1.17%, Consumer Spls +1.62%, Healthcare +1.92%, Consumer Disc +2.13%, Financials +2.02%, Tech +2.13%, Industrials +2.58%, Materials +2.73%, Energy +2.97%

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1686 (+2650)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1118.61 (-27.18%)
  • VIX: 21.36 -9.26% - YTD PERFORMANCE: -1.48%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.67 from 2.12 -21.38%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 14.62 -0.101 (-0.689%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.16% -0.01%  
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.44 from 2.36

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 308.91 +2.49%
  • Oil: 86.75 +3.14% - NEUTRAL
  • COPPER: 394.75 +3.19% - BEARISH
  • GOLD: 1,390.83 +0.17% - BEARISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3129 +0.70% - NEUTRAL
  • DOLLAR: 80.713 -0.59%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • European markets opened higher and pared gains before advancing to currently trade at session highs.
  • Continuing expectation that the ECB will introduce more measures to mitigate concerns over the EuroZone's debt crisis buoyed sentiment.
  • The ECB benchmark interest rate decision is due at 7:45ET, with no change to the 1% rate expected. Spains relatively successful 3-yr bond auction, though the yield was much higher vs last auction, provided additional support.
  • 15 of 18 sectors trade higher led by banks, autos and insurers. The leading decliner is healthcare.
  • France Q3 ILO unemployment rate 9.7% vs prior 9.7%
  • UK Nov Construction PMI 51.8 vs con 51 and prior 51.6
  • EuroZone Q3 GDP and Oct PPI due at 5ET

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Nikkei +1.8%; Hang Seng +0.9%; Shanghai Composite +0.7%
  • Asian markets followed Wall Street up to post decent rises today.
  • Miners lifted Australia on higher resource prices, though the market drifted off its highs when disappointing October retail sales data was released.
  • Japan rose on a weaker yen and Wall Street’s gain, with electricity & gas and air transport being the only sectors to decline.
  • Hong Kong rose on bargain hunting.
  • Large caps advanced modestly as China rose, though it lost some gains in the afternoon.
  • Japan Q3 corporate capex +5.0%. Q3 corporate sales +6.5% y/y. Q3 corporate pretax profits +54.1% y/y. November monetary base +7.6% y/y. Australia October seasonally adjusted retail sales (1.1%) vs survey +0.5%. October trade surplus A$2.63B vs survey A$2B.  

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER