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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 30, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -1.24% downside to 1173 and 0.78% upside to 1197.  Equity futures are pointing to a weaker opening following a choppy pre market session. Declines in Asia and directionless trading in Europe are contributing to early uncertainty although several macro releases due later in the session may determine whether the market can break out of a narrow trading range.

  • Altera (ALTR) reaffirmed 4Q rev. forecast 
  • Clinical Data (CLDA) said it was selling its genetic and pharmacogenomic testing and biomarker development unit for ~15.4m, plus milestonoes to Transgenomic. 
  • Interactive Brokers (IBKR) declared a special dividend of $1.79-shr
  • J&J Snack Foods (JJSF US) boosted its quarterly dividend to 11.75c-shr, matching BDVD est.
  • Seagate Technology Plc (STX) ended talks to be taken private and authorized the repurchase of as much as $2b of its own stock

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.36%), S&P (0.14%), Nasdaq (0.37%), Russell (0.11%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow (0.59%), S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.71%, Russell +4.07%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +2.45%, S&P +4.08%, Nasdaq +6.61%, Russell +8.25%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +5.99%, S&P +6.52%, Nasdaq +11.28%, Russell +17.04%
  • Sector Performance: Financials +0.57%, Energy +0.52%, Materials +0.47%, Industrials (0.06%), Consumer Staples (0.31%), Healthcare (0.34%), Utilities (0.37%), Tech (0.59%), Consumer Discretionary (0.61%), and Telecom (0.95%)

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -500 (+579)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 924.59 (+115.66%)
  • VIX: - 22.22 +13.60% - YTD PERFORMANCE - +2.49%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: - 2.24 from 2.07 +&.79%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 13.67 -0.406 (-2.886%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD 0.18% +0.02%  
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.32 from 2.36

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 302.89 +0.58%
  • Oil: 85.73 +2.35% - NEUTRAL
  • COPPER: 376.75 +0.13% - BEARISH
  • GOLD: 1,367.14 +0.52% - BEARISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3104 -1.04% - NEUTRAL
  • DOLLAR: 80.835 +0.59%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • FTSE 100: +0.03%; DAX +0.45%; CAC 40 +0.07%, IBEX +0.09%
  • Major indices are mixed with investors unsure how to react to attempts by EU leaders to stem the threat of contagion within the EU.
  • Questions remain about the likely effectiveness of the permanent European Stabilization Mechanism and debt markets have seen bond spreads widen again. Debt worries have also pushed the euro to a 10-week low against the dollar, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.
  • Gains in Basic Resources and Autos are offsetting weakness in financials although there is no clear pattern to trading
  • Portugal's banks may face an "intolerable risk" if the country fails to consolidate its public finances, the Bank of Portugal warned
  • OECD's chief economist said Italy does not face serious problems handling its debt burden in either the short or long term and does not need to do as much as other countries to control its public finances
  • Eurozone Oct Unemployment +10.1% vs cons +10.1%, CPI +1.9% vs cons +1.9%
  • Germany Nov Jobless Total (9K) vs cons (20K), Jobless Rate steady at +7.5%
  • France Oct PPI +0.8% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior +0.3%

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Japan (1.87%); Hang Seng (0.7%); Shanghai Composite (1.6%)
  • Most Asian markets fell today, on worries that the Irish bailout would not stem the European debt crisis.
  • China dragged the region down when it dropped on fears interest rates will soon be raised and credit is going to tighten.
  • South Korea rose on oil refiners and brokerages. But chip makers fell.
  • Miners led Australia down on lower metals prices.
  • China fell as a shortfall of cash in the money market caused a liquidity squeeze in the stock market. Financials lost 2-3%. Small cap drug shares were sold off when the government announced measures to cut the prices of 17 types of medicines.
  • Decliners led advancers, 6-to-1, as Japan fell on Wall Street’s weakness and the euro’s slide against the yen. Europe-linked shares lost 2-3%.
  • Japan October industrial output (1.8%) m/m vs survey (3.3%). October jobless rate 5.1% vs 5.0% survey. October household spending (0.4%) y/y vs survey (0.7%). 

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER