THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 30, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -1.24% downside to 1173 and 0.78% upside to 1197.  Equity futures are pointing to a weaker opening following a choppy pre market session. Declines in Asia and directionless trading in Europe are contributing to early uncertainty although several macro releases due later in the session may determine whether the market can break out of a narrow trading range.

  • Altera (ALTR) reaffirmed 4Q rev. forecast 
  • Clinical Data (CLDA) said it was selling its genetic and pharmacogenomic testing and biomarker development unit for ~15.4m, plus milestonoes to Transgenomic. 
  • Interactive Brokers (IBKR) declared a special dividend of $1.79-shr
  • J&J Snack Foods (JJSF US) boosted its quarterly dividend to 11.75c-shr, matching BDVD est.
  • Seagate Technology Plc (STX) ended talks to be taken private and authorized the repurchase of as much as $2b of its own stock

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.36%), S&P (0.14%), Nasdaq (0.37%), Russell (0.11%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow (0.59%), S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.71%, Russell +4.07%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +2.45%, S&P +4.08%, Nasdaq +6.61%, Russell +8.25%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +5.99%, S&P +6.52%, Nasdaq +11.28%, Russell +17.04%
  • Sector Performance: Financials +0.57%, Energy +0.52%, Materials +0.47%, Industrials (0.06%), Consumer Staples (0.31%), Healthcare (0.34%), Utilities (0.37%), Tech (0.59%), Consumer Discretionary (0.61%), and Telecom (0.95%)

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -500 (+579)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 924.59 (+115.66%)
  • VIX: - 22.22 +13.60% - YTD PERFORMANCE - +2.49%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: - 2.24 from 2.07 +&.79%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 13.67 -0.406 (-2.886%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD 0.18% +0.02%  
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.32 from 2.36

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 302.89 +0.58%
  • Oil: 85.73 +2.35% - NEUTRAL
  • COPPER: 376.75 +0.13% - BEARISH
  • GOLD: 1,367.14 +0.52% - BEARISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3104 -1.04% - NEUTRAL
  • DOLLAR: 80.835 +0.59%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • FTSE 100: +0.03%; DAX +0.45%; CAC 40 +0.07%, IBEX +0.09%
  • Major indices are mixed with investors unsure how to react to attempts by EU leaders to stem the threat of contagion within the EU.
  • Questions remain about the likely effectiveness of the permanent European Stabilization Mechanism and debt markets have seen bond spreads widen again. Debt worries have also pushed the euro to a 10-week low against the dollar, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.
  • Gains in Basic Resources and Autos are offsetting weakness in financials although there is no clear pattern to trading
  • Portugal's banks may face an "intolerable risk" if the country fails to consolidate its public finances, the Bank of Portugal warned
  • OECD's chief economist said Italy does not face serious problems handling its debt burden in either the short or long term and does not need to do as much as other countries to control its public finances
  • Eurozone Oct Unemployment +10.1% vs cons +10.1%, CPI +1.9% vs cons +1.9%
  • Germany Nov Jobless Total (9K) vs cons (20K), Jobless Rate steady at +7.5%
  • France Oct PPI +0.8% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior +0.3%

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Japan (1.87%); Hang Seng (0.7%); Shanghai Composite (1.6%)
  • Most Asian markets fell today, on worries that the Irish bailout would not stem the European debt crisis.
  • China dragged the region down when it dropped on fears interest rates will soon be raised and credit is going to tighten.
  • South Korea rose on oil refiners and brokerages. But chip makers fell.
  • Miners led Australia down on lower metals prices.
  • China fell as a shortfall of cash in the money market caused a liquidity squeeze in the stock market. Financials lost 2-3%. Small cap drug shares were sold off when the government announced measures to cut the prices of 17 types of medicines.
  • Decliners led advancers, 6-to-1, as Japan fell on Wall Street’s weakness and the euro’s slide against the yen. Europe-linked shares lost 2-3%.
  • Japan October industrial output (1.8%) m/m vs survey (3.3%). October jobless rate 5.1% vs 5.0% survey. October household spending (0.4%) y/y vs survey (0.7%). 

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER



Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more