THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 26, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or -2.12% downside to 1173 and 0.89% upside to 1209.  The Asia Pacific heads for biggest loss in two weeks, as North Korea’s state news agency warns its confrontation with South Korea could lead to war.  In addition, there are increased concern China will tighten monetary policy. European markets are down more than 1% amid continuing concern about region’s dent crisis. U.S. stock index futures are sharply lower.

  • Bank of America (BAC): Apax Partners agreed to buy Advantage Sales & Marketing from private equity firm J.W. Childs and Bank of America. A person familiar with the transaction said earlier it was valued at $1.8b
  • Del Monte (DLM): KKR-led buyout group agreed to buy Del Monte for $4b or $19-shr in cash
  • Genzyme (GENZ) has drawn up a list of possible defensive measures against Sanofi-Aventis takeover, has made no decision on whether to use them, CEO Henri Termeer told French daily Le Figaro
  • Simon Property (SPG) approaches Capital Shopping Centres saying it might seek to buy CSC LN for more than NAV, which was 368p-shr on June 30; may spark auction, Nomura says
  • Suntech Power (STP) aims to increase shipments of solar panels next year by ~30% to meet demand from markets including Europe, CEO Shi Zhengrong said

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +1.37%, S&P +1.49%, Nasdaq +1.93%, Russell +2.31%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +12.07%, S&P +7.47%, Nasdaq +12.07%, Russell +17.77%

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1986 (+3683)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 823.48 (-19.60%)
  • VIX: 19.56 -5.19% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-9.78%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.00 from 1.99 +0.44%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 14.53 0.352 (+2.479%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.16% +0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.40 from 2.32

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 302.34 +1.56%
  • Oil: 83.86 +3.21% - NEUTRAL
  • COPPER: 376.65 +1.50% - BEARISH
  • GOLD:  1,375.43 +0.12% - BEARISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3375 +0.03% - NEUTRAL
  • DOLLAR: 79.730 -0.17%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • DAX: (1.14%); CAC 40: (1.63%) FTSE: (1.70%)
  • European markets fell from the open as worries over the EuroZone debt crisis intensified and tensions in Korea continued to mount. All peripheral asset classes were pressured and the Euro is burning, despite denials on several rumors over future potential bailouts.
  • Bond spreads expanded to Euro lifetime highs and CDS's continued to rise.
  • All sectors trade lower with the Spanish market leading equity declines down over (2%).
  • Ireland was pressured by Irish Times article saying that the EU/IMF were pushing to make bondholders share the burden of the bailout package. Sources say a deal is very likely to be announced on Sunday.
  • Portuguese parliament is due to approve the austerity package today. Portugal's government denies news report on bailout and EU Commission says not aware of any talks over EU aid
  • Spain says not pressuring Portugal to seek for a financial rescue
  • Hungary, shares fell over (3.5%) on budget worries, pension reform and peripheral sentiment
  • France Oct Consumer Spending (0.7%) m/m vs consensus 0.0% 

ASIAN MARKTES

  • Nikkei (0.4%); Hang Seng (0.8%); Shanghai Composite (0.9%)
  • Most Asian markets fell today.
  • Australia ended barely higher, as rising resource stocks fought with falling Telstra and banking shares. Sentiment was aided when the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia said it was unlikely that policy would be tightened over the next few months.
  • Lacking a lead from Wall Street, Japan stayed flat for most of the day before edging down on weakness in the brokerage and property sectors.
  • Chinese banks dragged Hong Kong to a loss. But Li & Fung outperformed the market and remained flat on indications that consumer spending is rising in the US.
  • China was weak as monetary tightening is starting to push up borrowing rates. Investors stayed away from banks, choosing small caps like fertilizer producer Ju Hua Corp, which jumped 7%.
  • The steel sector fell when the Dalian Commodity Exchange said it would raise margins and trading limits to deter speculators.
  • South Korea fell on worries about European debt and tensions on the Korean peninsula. 

Howard Penney
Manging Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER