REITs DAILY BRIEF | 9/29/21 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER)

09/29/21 01:04PM EDT

We are updating the Hedgeye apartment rental rate tracker (link below) for September numbers just published. Some key takeaways:

  • Every key U.S. REIT market showed sequential improvement with the exception of Spokane, WA (-1.8%), led by Jersey City (+4.3%), San Diego (+4%), and Miami/Orlando (each up +3.9%)
  • San Francisco, Oakland, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C. remain laggards on a y/y RoC basis, but given the sequential RoC acceleration are all flashing green while at the same time being in the earlier innings of recovery vs. the Sunbelt names
  • Of note below in the Chart of the Day, San Francisco rents remain below pre-Covid nominal levels by a mid-teens percentage as measured by the 2-year RoC, so plenty of room to run. Let it run!
  • Numbers remain supportive of Best Idea Longs AVB and EQR, where consensus estimates are still far too low, reported results are poised to accelerate well-into FY22 on easy comparisons + accelerating rental rates, and shorter lease duration/cyclical growth are favorable factor exposures in Quad 2

Rental Rate Tracker File: HERE

Chart of the Day: 2-Year Change in SF 1-BR Apartment Rents

REITs DAILY BRIEF | 9/29/21 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER) - Capture

Source: Apartmentlist.com

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Rob Simone, CFA
Managing Director
Twitter: @HedgeyeREITs
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