Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. 

One proprietary model we run in real-time is called our Systemic Contagion Risk Tracker (if you’d like to subscribe to that, it’s part of my Macro Partner, Josh Steiner’s, Financials Pro research product). Here’s the update on that:

  • The Ted Spread widened 1 bps d/d to 10 bps as of 09/20, up 1 bps (+16.8%) from four weeks ago
  • The Euribor-OIS Spread remains in negative territory since the beginning of August 20'
  • The CDOR-OIS Spread widened 1 bps to 26 bps as of 09/20, up 2 bps (+6.4%) from four weeks ago
  • High Yield widened 16 bps d/d to 2.90% as of 09/20, down -17 bps (-5.5%) from four weeks ago
  • The Chinese Interbank Rate tightened 11 bps d/d to 2.11% as of 09/20, down 4 bps (-1.7%) from four weeks ago

Yeah, I know. That’s what you heard on CNBC for the last two days.

In all seriousness, this is a serious business and your hard earned wealth deserves a better way than the click-bait-macro—tourist-act that has become the Wall Street Journo profession.

Unlike trying to get you to click on our “stuff”, much of our risk tracker focuses on overnight interbank lending spreads. The reason for this is those spreads reflect systemic risk perceptions and reality.

CHART OF THE DAY: Systemic Contagion Risk Tracker - 9 22 2021 7 58 18 AM