THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 19, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 11 points or -0.48% downside to 1191 and 0.44% upside to 1202.  Equity futures are lower as easing worries about Ireland’s debt is offset by concern about tightening measures in China. No important economic data is expected today.

  • Autodesk (ADSK) sees 4Q non-GAAP EPS 30c-33c vs est. 34c
  • Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) forecast 3Q adj. EPS 33c-39c vs est. 40c
  • Dell (DELL) reported 3Q EPS 45c vs est. 32c
  • Foot Locker (FL) reported 3Q rev. $1.28b vs est. $1.2b
  • Gap (GPS) reported 3Q EPS in line, said expects “choppy” sales in 4Q
  • Intuit (INTU) forecast 2Q adj. EPS 36c-40c vs est. 45c
  • KeyCorp (KEY) said CEO Henry L. Meyer will retire in May; Beth Mooney, currently vice chair, will replace him
  • Salesforce.com (CRM) raised year adj. EPS forecast to $1.18-$1.19 from $1.15-$1.17, vs est. $1.17

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +1.57%, S&P +1.54%, Nasdaq +1.55%, Russell 2000 +1.85%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +0.56%, S&P +1.13%, Nasdaq +0.28%, Russell +2.49%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.79%, S&P +4.86%, Nasdaq +6.14%, Russell +6.61%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +7.22%, S&P +7.32%, Nasdaq +10.81%, Russell +15.26%
  • Sector Performance: Energy +2.20%, Materials +1.89%, Tech +1.68%, Industrials +2.03%, Financials +1.40%, Healthcare +1.41%, Consumer Spls +1.34%, Consumer Disc +0.87%, Utilities +0.60%

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1894 (+1283)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE: 1198.94 (+27.13%)
  • VIX: 18.75 -13.83% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-13.51%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.19 from 1.60 -25.29%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 15.35 0.203 (1.340%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.15% +0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.38 from 2.39

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 302.51 +2.40%
  • Oil: 81.85 +1.75% - NEUTRAL
  • COPPER: 383.85 +2.80% - BEARISH
  • GOLD: 1,351.85 +1.09 - BEARISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3615 +0.62% - NEUTRAL
  • DOLLAR: 78.617 -0.59%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

 

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: (0.54%); DAX +0.02%; CAC 40 (0.08%)
  • Indices in the region trade flat to lower following a good show yesterday.
  • Investors cautiously watch the progress in the Irish debt talks. Chemicals and Media are among the best performing sectors, while Basic Resources and Banks are in the red.
  • Tech stocks are higher boosted by good Dell figures.
  • Germany Oct PPI +4.3% y/y vs consensus +4.2% and prior +3.9%
  • Germany Oct PPI +0.4% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.3%

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei +0.1%; Hang Seng (0.1%); Shanghai Composite +0.8%
  • Asian markets were mixed in a fairly tight range today.
  • Worries about Ireland’s debt began to ease, and sentiment was boosted by a positive reaction to General Motors’s IPO.
  • South Korea rose on expectations of a resolution of Ireland’s debt crisis. Tech issues supported the market, but shippers fell on a lower Baltic Dry Index.
  • Tech stocks and carmakers gave Taiwan a slight rise after the island’s Q3 GDP growth beat estimates.
  • Japan rose early, but shed most of its gains as the day went on, as concern rose about declines in China and Hong Kong.
  • Australia slipped, with sentiment harmed when the QR National IPO was priced at the low end of its expected range.
  • Coal, metals, and banking shares paced morning falls in Hong Kong and China, but the markets rebounded in the afternoon. 

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER



Today 12PM ET: LIVE Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more