THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 19, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 11 points or -0.48% downside to 1191 and 0.44% upside to 1202.  Equity futures are lower as easing worries about Ireland’s debt is offset by concern about tightening measures in China. No important economic data is expected today.

  • Autodesk (ADSK) sees 4Q non-GAAP EPS 30c-33c vs est. 34c
  • Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) forecast 3Q adj. EPS 33c-39c vs est. 40c
  • Dell (DELL) reported 3Q EPS 45c vs est. 32c
  • Foot Locker (FL) reported 3Q rev. $1.28b vs est. $1.2b
  • Gap (GPS) reported 3Q EPS in line, said expects “choppy” sales in 4Q
  • Intuit (INTU) forecast 2Q adj. EPS 36c-40c vs est. 45c
  • KeyCorp (KEY) said CEO Henry L. Meyer will retire in May; Beth Mooney, currently vice chair, will replace him
  • Salesforce.com (CRM) raised year adj. EPS forecast to $1.18-$1.19 from $1.15-$1.17, vs est. $1.17

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +1.57%, S&P +1.54%, Nasdaq +1.55%, Russell 2000 +1.85%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +0.56%, S&P +1.13%, Nasdaq +0.28%, Russell +2.49%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.79%, S&P +4.86%, Nasdaq +6.14%, Russell +6.61%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +7.22%, S&P +7.32%, Nasdaq +10.81%, Russell +15.26%
  • Sector Performance: Energy +2.20%, Materials +1.89%, Tech +1.68%, Industrials +2.03%, Financials +1.40%, Healthcare +1.41%, Consumer Spls +1.34%, Consumer Disc +0.87%, Utilities +0.60%

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1894 (+1283)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE: 1198.94 (+27.13%)
  • VIX: 18.75 -13.83% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-13.51%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.19 from 1.60 -25.29%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 15.35 0.203 (1.340%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.15% +0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.38 from 2.39

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 302.51 +2.40%
  • Oil: 81.85 +1.75% - NEUTRAL
  • COPPER: 383.85 +2.80% - BEARISH
  • GOLD: 1,351.85 +1.09 - BEARISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3615 +0.62% - NEUTRAL
  • DOLLAR: 78.617 -0.59%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: (0.54%); DAX +0.02%; CAC 40 (0.08%)
  • Indices in the region trade flat to lower following a good show yesterday.
  • Investors cautiously watch the progress in the Irish debt talks. Chemicals and Media are among the best performing sectors, while Basic Resources and Banks are in the red.
  • Tech stocks are higher boosted by good Dell figures.
  • Germany Oct PPI +4.3% y/y vs consensus +4.2% and prior +3.9%
  • Germany Oct PPI +0.4% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.3%

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei +0.1%; Hang Seng (0.1%); Shanghai Composite +0.8%
  • Asian markets were mixed in a fairly tight range today.
  • Worries about Ireland’s debt began to ease, and sentiment was boosted by a positive reaction to General Motors’s IPO.
  • South Korea rose on expectations of a resolution of Ireland’s debt crisis. Tech issues supported the market, but shippers fell on a lower Baltic Dry Index.
  • Tech stocks and carmakers gave Taiwan a slight rise after the island’s Q3 GDP growth beat estimates.
  • Japan rose early, but shed most of its gains as the day went on, as concern rose about declines in China and Hong Kong.
  • Australia slipped, with sentiment harmed when the QR National IPO was priced at the low end of its expected range.
  • Coal, metals, and banking shares paced morning falls in Hong Kong and China, but the markets rebounded in the afternoon. 

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER