Initial Claims Approach YTD Lows
Initial jobless claims seem to be getting better. The headline initial claims number rose 4k last week to 439k, but rolling claims fell 4k to 443k. As the following two charts show, both reported and rolling claims are knocking on the door of their YTD lows, but have yet to break through. Claims still need to be in the 375-400k range for unemployment to meaningfully improve - still well below where we are now.
In the table below, we chart US equity correlations with Initial Claims, the Dollar Index, and US 10Y Treasury yields on a weekly basis going back 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years.
Joshua Steiner, CFA