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Conclusion: We just shorted PNRA in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio.


PNRA has posted strong results year-to-date, but the stock is now flashing as immediate-term overbought in Keith’s model with TRADE support down at $92.35.


The timing of the overbought level being triggered lines up with my fundamental view as the company will be lapping its most difficult same-store sales growth comparison in Q4.  As I have said before, I think the company’s guidance for 4-6% comp growth in Q4 is somewhat aggressive as it relies on a significant acceleration in transaction growth that I think will be difficult to achieve.  Year-to-date, average check growth has driven about 6.5% of PNRA’s 8.4% comp growth. 


Management’s Q4 comp guidance assumes 1-3% transaction growth and 3% average check growth.  Although the company’s transaction growth trends did improve during the third quarter on a two-year average basis after slowing in 2Q10, this 1-3% growth target implies a 110 to 210 bp uptick in two-year average trends from 3Q10 levels. 


Panera is relying on the success of its recently launched MyPanera Loyalty Program (nationwide rollout was completed in mid November) to boost comp growth during the fourth quarter.  Specifically, the company is expecting an approximate 1.5% lift to comp growth from the new loyalty program and an additional 1.5% lift from sequentially increased media spending during Q4.  Through the first 27 days of Q4, same-store sales were up 4.4%, which implies a 120 bp acceleration in two-year average trends from the third quarter.  Despite this strong start, comparisons get more difficult throughout the quarter, and management’s expectation for such a sharp sequential increase in transaction growth seems like a stretch, even in light of the company’s new loyalty program.  I do not doubt that over time, this program will drive frequency, but a +1.5% lift in the first quarter it is rolled out still seems aggressive.




Howard Penney

Managing Director

Trouble Brewing In Korea?

Conclusion: With growth slowing and inflation accelerating in the Korean economy, Korean equities will present a nice opportunity on the short side over the intermediate-term TREND.


Position: Bearish on Korean equities.


By now, it should be clear that we don’t subscribe to Bernanke’s promise that equities will appreciate in perpetuity; nor do we buy the tired consensus argument that equities will continue to rise globally due to the “excess liquidity” created by QE2 (see: 2007). Cutting to the chase then, we have two very important questions regarding South Korea: 

  1. Can the world’s 13th largest economy “comp the comps” with regard to YoY Real GDP growth?
  2. With inflation accelerating, will the Bank of Korea take the necessary steps to cool quickening price increases? 

Notwithstanding that the former plays into the latter, as it stands currently, we don’t think Korea has enough mustard in the old engine to prevent growth from slowing domestically. Taken in the context of a) growth slowing globally; b) inflation accelerating globally; and c) interconnected risk compounding, it’s relatively easy to arrive at that conclusion considering that exports account for roughly ~50% of Korea’s GDP. China (21.5%), U.S. (10.9%), and Japan (6.6%) are its top three export markets and growth is slowing and/or setup to slow meaningfully in all three economies (growth in Japan could go negative over the next 2 quarters).


Looking at the table below, we see that Korea has some tough comps to surmount for the next three quarters starting in 4Q10:


Trouble Brewing In Korea? - 1


On the inflation front, Korea has been reluctant to deal with its inflation woes, finally raising rates yesterday for only the second time this year. Unfortunately for Korea’s savers, the 25bps hike leaves the benchmark 7-Day Repo rate at 2.5% - a full 1.56% below the latest rate of consumer price inflation as measured by the October CPI report. In fact, real interest rates in Korea have been negative for nearly a full year, with the decline accelerating of late:


Trouble Brewing In Korea? - 2


Clearly the negative real interest rates are helping stoke inflation as savers turn to consumers on the margin. With CPI accelerating to a 20-month high of +4.1% YoY and PPI accelerating to a 22-month high of +5% YoY, we see further rate hikes on the horizon as Korea is forced to combat rising prices. In fact, in concordance with yesterday’s rate hike, the Bank of Korea dropped its pledge to keep monetary policy “accommodative” for the first time since the financial crisis began.  Instead, it shifted its tone towards “maintaining price stability while sustaining growth”.


Trouble Brewing In Korea? - 3


While the CRB Commodities Index has backed off its recent highs, prices remain elevated enough on a YoY basis (+6.9%) to continue to quell inflationary pressures globally (thanks to Quantitative Guessing) and Korea is no exception, in spite of its reoccurring threats for capital controls. When it’s all said and done, Korea will likely have to institute a series of rate hikes that will further compound the problem alluded to in question #1 from above. When growth slows and inflation is accelerating, it’s not good for equities. Korean equity investors will find this out soon enough.


Trouble Brewing In Korea? - 4


With the KOSPI up +12.9% YTD and up +9.7% since Bernanke started “shaking the ketchup bottle” at Jackson Hole, Korean equities have plenty of mean reversion to be had to the downside over the coming months.


Darius Dale



Trouble Brewing In Korea? - 5

Bear/Bull Battle: SP500 Levels, Refreshed...

POSITION: no position in the SP500 here


That doesn’t mean I don’t want to have a short position in the SP500 here. I want one, badly… you know it, I know it. But, for that very reason (human want), I am effectively forcing myself to wait and watch for the market’s direction into the close. This isn’t easy. It just gets less hard as you do more reps.


When making a probability-weighted decision to time a market, you have to have a point of view. In my case, the fundamental and quantitative points of view are bearish (1. Growth Slowing 2. Inflation Accelerating 3. Interconnected Risk Compounding). These factors have been bearish for the last month. It’s a lot more difficult to reconcile the timing of when that matters versus the theses themselves.


From an immediate term TRADE perspective, the SP500 broke support yesterday. Now, what was support (1191) is resistance. As a result, the bulls are in no man’s land, and they know it.


If today were to work out perfectly for me, I’d short the SPY as it pushes toward 1190-1191 into the close. Most days aren’t perfect though. That’s what keeps us all paying attention.


Immediate term TRADE support is now 1172. Beyond that, there really is no support of consequence down to 1133. That’s this market’s bullish intermediate term TREND line.


Keep managing risk proactively out there,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Bear/Bull Battle: SP500 Levels, Refreshed...  - A

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GIL: Not Looking Good

Keith shorted GIL in the Hedgeye portfolio today.  “GIL, shorting - Looking for names that are up that our analysts don't like from an intermediate term TREND perspective. Brian McGough is bearish on Gildan's prospective margin outlook.”

Here’s some added color on our fundamental view by duration.



GIL is the kind of name where most people don’t ‘kinda like it’ or ‘kinda dislike it’. This name is either pure love or hatred. I’m more of the latter’s camp. I absolutely buy into several parts of Gildan’s model. They are, without a doubt, the low-cost provider of socks, underwear, and Ts – the staples of most wardrobes. They were the first company to successfully migrate production overseas while maintaining a vertical (as opposed to outsourced) production model.


What did they do with all those cost saves? On one hand, they more than doubled market share in the blank T business to somewhere between 60-70% of the market, and they also took share in Fleece to near 50%.  Those are simply astounding numbers, and should be commended by even the most crotchety of bears.  But while gaining share, that ALSO doubled EBIT margins to 16%. They had a big slice of cake and ate it too.


But then they got to a point where they had to look elsewhere for growth. First it was in mass channels (especially Wal*Mart). Then when that turned out to be a weaker return business than they planned, International growth seemed like a good idea to them (make product in Honduras, and ship to China to compete with local factories than can make it cheaper???). Now they’re back to mass channels in working with companies like Iconix to grow both brands.

Could that work? Maybe. But  the crux of our case is that these are ALL margin and ROIC-dilutive businesses.  GIL’s SG&A ratio is simply too low. It never had to focus on marketing. Now it does. A 10% SG&A ratio is already heading up to 11.5% next year. That comes right out of margin.


The tax rate is sitting at about zero. There’s the American/Honduran/Canadian-domiciled system hard at work. Will it stay low forever. Not sure. But it’s sure as heck not going down.


The offshoring + tax rate + weak competition made the last decade sweet for GIL. But that’s done. Now they can, and will grow units at the rate of new capacity growth (which they need to fund). There’s negative pricing power beyond GIL’s core Blanks business.  And we can’t underestimate the impact of Hanesbrands, which sits today where GIL was 8 years ago in its restructuring. That’s not to be ignored given that HBI is 3.5x the size of GIL and they compete on the fringes more and more each day.


The long-term punchline is that current margins of 16% are a new peak, and there are headwinds coming.



Sometimes lousy long-term stories make great stocks – over shorter durations. Unfortunately for GIL, this is one of those times where a lousy company should = a lousy stock. The model tells it all…


a)      This year (which just ended), GIL will put up about 25% top line growth and about 100% EBIT growth. Starting 1 quarter out, GIL needs to go up against yy revenue comparisons of +20%, then +33%... It’s not pretty, and new capacity is unlikely to support the 20% growth that the consensus thinks will happen AGAIN next year.


b)      $1.28 in cotton. Also not great that GIL has been trying (unsuccessfully) to hire HBI’s head of raw materials sourcing. Lastly, SG&A is headed up by about 150bps next year.


c)       Capex seems fairly controlled, but the $130mm in capex they’re likely to report excludes the $25mm that they bumped into next year 2 quarters ago.


d)      Check out GIL’s SIGMA chart below. Headed in the wrong direction.





a)      EPS report on December 2. We’re at $0.44 vs. the Street at $0.46.


b)      We wouldn’t fall out of our chairs if they do a few pennies higher. That’s driven by 2 factors…

  1. Print a great quarter, make the year, get everyone paid. Then worry about 2011.
  2. On the top line, GIL can pretty print whatever it wants. Instead of pushing revenue through its own pipe, it can outsource last minute. But then that margin goes to the customer and consumer, not to GIL. But if they push the capacity lever hard enough this could still help the quarter.
  3. Lastly, 2001 guidance will not be pretty. We could literally see margins down 300bps – not the paltry 20bps currently in the Street’s numbers.  If there is not a guide down, this name will have a whole lot of hope built into it. With the most favorable sell-side sentiment this name has had in over 2 years -- they need all the hope they can get. Fortunately for us, and hopefully for you, we realize that hope is not an investment process.


GIL: Not Looking Good - gg


GIL: Not Looking Good - dsf



November 17, 2010





  • While traffic remains relatively flat at Saks, the luxury retailer highlighted an uptick in average dollar per transaction in Q3 suggesting improved confidence among consumers. Additionally, sales at the New York store are not yet seeing a disproportionate increase in sales percentage coming from tourism. In fact, management commented that it remains in the typical 20%-25% range.
  • In one of the first major retail campaigns to support Foursquare, the social network/recommendation site, Radio Shack is offering 10% off for every store check-in, 15% off for store "mayors," and 20% off for unlocking the "Holiday Heroes" badge during the holiday season. For those looking to cash in on the 20% offer, a badge only requires checking in at two ‘hero hotspots.’
  • After confirming consumer appetite for Sperry Top-Sider retail locations with an initial 5 store pilot, Collective Brands opened its latest store in Burlington, MA last week and will open its seventh location in the Westchester Mall (NY) this Friday. With new stores in A malls locations and actually within eyeshot of the water, we expect even better results to materialize as the company begins to rollout the concept more aggressively in 2011.



Google's Boutiques.com Launches - Google’s new fashion site, Boutiques.com, set to launch today, is poised to quickly become one of the biggest fashion sites online — turning the Web giant into an even bigger force in driving sales to retailers and brands. The site is based on the visual search and shopping referral site Like.com, which Google acquired earlier this year. Several dozen celebrities are setting up their own shops on Boutiques.com, including Anna Paquin, the Olsen twins, Elisabeth Moss, Iman, Kelly Osbourne, Olivia Palermo, Ashlee Simpson-Wentz, Carey Mulligan, Sarah Michelle Gellar and Rashida Jones. More than 30 designers are involved and will have designer boutiques on the site. Some of the celebrities and bloggers were paid for their participation; others did it for the exposure, said Munjal Shah, Like.com founder and Google Inc. director of product management. Google will not actually sell clothing on the site, but will charge small fees for directing traffic and purchases to other retailers’ sites. “What we set out to do is rethink the entire process of shopping for soft goods,” said Shah, who compared Boutiques.com to Pandora, the music site that plays selections of music based on what others with similar tastes like. “Boutiques.com nicely complements our existing digital strategy, which includes Foursquare and other social media platforms,” said Peter Arnold, president of Cynthia Rowley, which is setting up a shop on the site. “The combination of a behavioral marketing model and Google-sized resources will bring significant change to the way users interact with fashion online.” <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: It’s now easier than ever to look like your favorite star – how you afford it is your problem.


Gift Cards Back En Vogue - Gift cards could make a resurgence this year as consumers shift their gaze from heavily discounted merchandize back to America's favorite gift, according to NRF’s 2010 Gift Card Consumer Intentions and Actions survey.  NRF estimates Americans will spend an average of $145.61 on gift cards, up from $139.91 last year. Total gift card spending is expected to reach $24.78 billion. Meanwhile, gift cards have topped consumers’ wish lists for the fourth year in a row. “This holiday season we expect Americans to gravitate toward both sale and non-sale items, including gift cards, which in recent years have been passed up for heavily discounted merchandise,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  “With people focusing less on price and more on value this holiday season, Americans may choose to buy gift cards due to their convenience and popularity among gift recipients.” <SportsOneSource>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: This is consistent with the recent 2010 Morepace Omnibus study results citing the percent of consumers not willing to put holiday purchases on credit is up to 40% from 35% last year.


Wholesale Prices for U.S. Apparel Increase - Wholesale prices for U.S.-made apparel increased 0.7 percent in October compared with September and rose 0.2 percent against a year earlier, the Labor Department reported Tuesday in its Producer Price Index. Women’s apparel prices were up a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent month-to-month, but fell 0.1 percent compared with October 2009. Men’s domestic apparel prices rose 1.8 percent in October compared with the prior month, but dipped 0.1 percent year-over-year. Prices for all goods and services increased 0.4 percent in October, due primarily to surging oil-based energy prices, according to the Labor Department’s report. Energy prices were up 3.7 percent overall. Core producer prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy sectors, fell 0.6 percent, driven primarily by declining prices for new autos. “There is upward pressure on input costs from rising commodity prices, which was clear in sharp rises in intermediate and crude material costs,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight. “It is not true to say that no cost increases are filtering through. For example, tire manufacturers have announced price increases to reflect higher rubber costs and grocery-store prices have started to rise to reflect higher food costs. But there’s still so much excess capacity in the economy that core inflation will remain quiet despite higher costs.” <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Just the beginning of escalating PPI results with multiple headwinds starting to flow through the chain.


U.K. Trade Show Demand/Attendance Reflects Optimism - Trade shows in the U.K. are expanding to accommodate more exhibitors as sales are holding up and the future appears promising. “There’s a sense of optimism returning,” said Samantha Bleasby, marketing manager at Pure London. Pure London, a premium high street fashion show, increased its exhibitor numbers by 15 percent this year and its visitors by 23 percent. The company also plans to expand with the launch of a younger upscale show called Pure Spirit, which will take over almost 43,000 square feet in West London’s Earls Court exhibition center in February, in collaboration with men’s show Stitch Menswear. Pure isn’t the only show in expansion mode. This year, the British Bridal Exhibition Harrogate added 19,923 square feet of space and said many exhibitors reported a “record-breaking” year in sales. “We can’t say that the bridal industry has not been affected by the recession, but we do feel lucky,” said Wendy Adams, an organizer at BBEH. “Girls are still spending for that dream dress, even if it means their guests have less Champagne.” Top Drawer, a fashion and gifting show, saw a 15 percent increase in exhibitors and a 23 percent increase in attendance. Bubble London, a boutique children’s show, said footfall was up 21 percent from last year. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Clearly a sign of optimism after prolonged expense cutbacks for most designers and brands – keep in mind the greatly reduced base these shows are referencing from last year.


Robust Chinese Trade Show Activity Expected - China’s buoyant bounce-back from the global financial meltdown has brought a resurgence of enthusiasm, alongside higher manufacturing and trade numbers, ahead of the spring and summer 2011 trade show seasons. “The scale of our exhibition overall will be 50 percent larger than last year, so we’ll have more companies and visitors,” said Ma Ying, media organizer for Mode Shanghai, which takes place March 16 to 18. Still, there are trouble spots, noted Yang Chunhua, marketing manager for the 2011 Shenzhen International Clothing OEM Expo, set for March 7 to 9. Yang said Chinese companies are still looking for new markets and domestic customers amid fears over changing currency values. Orders have not resumed their fast pace of pre-crisis spending, and Chinese textile and apparel markets are hungry to recommence trade. “The increase in prices of raw materials, possible changes in currency and the labor shortage in the south are still causing problems,” said Yang. “[Manufacturers] have started paying more attention to the domestic market, as the domestic market is comparatively stable.” At the same time, as foreign customers return to China and find the manufacturing glut over, they’ll need to find new sources and companies with which to do business, Yang noted, adding those factors should make for a brisk trade show season. Another trend on the horizon: More clients will be looking for research and development, potential innovation from China, rather than just top-down ordered clothing and textile manufacturing. Chinese companies are aiming to increase their worth on the global value chain, in part by coming up with their own products and ideas. Yang said many companies will bring new ideas and products to apparel and textile fairs this season. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: In addition to comments above related to higher traffic in the UK, many retailers and brands are increasingly focused on establishing more stable relationships with Chinese vendors if they haven’t done so already in an effort to manage costs adding a key dynamic to higher attendance figures in the near-term.  


Turkey Quickly Becoming More Prominent Fashion Exporter - Turkey’s last fashion week, held in August, showed how much hope the country is investing in its fashion industry. Apparel exports rose 10.7 percent to $12 billion in the first 10 months of 2010 from a year earlier, and made up 13 percent of all of Turkey’s exports, the largest category after automobiles. The pace of export growth in general was strong: an 11.4 percent increase in the same period, according to the Turkish Assembly of Exporters. Even more impressive is the overall economic expansion, at a time when many of Turkey’s peers are still barely out of recession. Gross domestic product grew at a pace of about 11 percent in the first half of 2010 from a year earlier, rivaling China and exceeding all other countries in the G-20 group of developed countries. That is likely to slow in the second half of the year owing to base-year effects, the government said, but it is still forecasting growth of close to 7 percent this year and 4.5 percent next year. That doesn’t mean that Turkey is immune from global economic problems, and that’s particularly true in the textile industry, where the troubled European Union is the country’s largest export market. Exports to the EU rose 15 percent from a year earlier in the first nine months of 2010, according to the Turkish Statistics Authority, yet there are doubts about whether that kind of growth can be maintained, given the scale of Europe’s problems. There’s some relief, though, since Germany — one of Europe’s healthier economies — is the leading market for Turkish ready-to-wear, with sales exceeding $3 billion in the first 10 months of 2010, according to the assembly of exporters. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Given its exposure to Germany, and position as a China-alternative, we expect Turkey’s role as a global exporter to become more prominent over the intermediate-term.


Forecast Calls for Robust e-Commerce Holiday Sales - eMarketer predicts US online holiday season sales, defined as all online sales in November and December, will build on a strong 2009 showing and rise a further 14.3% over the same period last year. “Holiday shopping is ideally suited to the internet,” said Jeffrey Grau, eMarketer principal analyst and author of the new report “Online Holiday Sales Forecast: Optimism Is in the Air.” “Consumers appreciate the convenience and product selection online, as well as the abundance of resources available for finding good deals, especially for cost-conscious shoppers trying to weather the tough economy.” This season’s growth of 14.3% will bring retail ecommerce holiday season sales to $38.5 billion, up from $33.7 billion last year.  Strong online holiday sales will push annual ecommerce sales to $162.4 billion for full-year 2010, up 12.7% over 2009. Online holiday sales will represent 23.7% of online retail sales in 2010, underlining the importance that November and December have on retailers’ annual ecommerce sales. <emarketer>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Certainly up against a tough compare for the holidays, but with online spending up the most since 2007 and strides made to greatly improve the shopping experience there may even be room for upside.


R3: SKS, RSH, PSS, GOOG - R3 11 17 10



Brazilian Equities: Broken On TRADE, Bullish on TREND

Conclusion: Signs of inflationary pressures continue to mount as the Bovespa Index has broken its former TRADE line of support (now resistance).


Below we’ve compiled some recent nuggets from our resident Brazilian insider, Moshe Silver:


Inflation Rises in November

Fundacao Getulio Vargas reports the general price index measure of inflation rose 1.16% in November, on top of a 1.15% rise in October, bringing the year to date increase to 9.77% (trailing 12 months cumulative increase is 9.69%).


The three components of the general price index tracked as follows: the broad producer price index rose 1.51% in October and 1.49% in November; industrial products rose 0.21% in October and 0.46% in November; and agricultural products rose 5.54% in October and 4.52% in November.


Congress to Debate Increase in Minimum Salary

Yesterday Congress opened the discussion on an increase in the “minimum salary” from a current R$ 540 to R$ 550.  Opposition politicians and labor unionists are pressing for an increase to R$ 600, a number the planning minister characterized as “foolishness,” saying the government does not yet have numbers for recalibrating its social programs. 


Any increase would be submitted by Congress and would only take effect upon being approved by the executive branch.  A senior budget official confirmed that an increase to R$ 550 would likely receive presidential approval. This morning, labor representatives met with planning ministry officials seeking support for an upward revision to the R$ 560-580 range. 


One of the key factors behind our bullish outlook for Brazilian interest rates is the potential inability of the next regime to contain government spending and the inflationary pressures that accompany it. As recently as 11/3, President-elect Dilma Rousseff said she is seriously considering raising the monthly minimum wage to more than 700 reais ($412) by 2014 for a CAGR of 8.2%, which is greater than the 5.5% increase in 2011 under current President Lula’s budget. Further potential strains to the government’s budget include her commitment to reducing payroll taxes, levies on investment and taxes on prescription drugs, sanitation and electricity.


Market Sees Inflation, Rates Higher in 2011

According to this week’s central bank Focus report, the market expects increases in inflation and in the level of interest rates for 2011.  Inflation, as measured by the broad-based consumer price index, is expected to rise 5.48% in 2011, versus a prior forecast of 5.31%.  This is the ninth consecutive week of increasing estimates and takes the level of inflation forecast for next year from 4.99% to 5.05%.


The SELIC interest rate, which at 10.75% is already among the highest rates in the world in what is deemed a relatively stable economy, is now projected to rise to 12% in 2011.  For the last eight weeks, the projection had held steady at 11.75% for 2011.


The exchange rate is expected to hold at R$ 1.70 to the dollar for 2010 and to be R$ 1.75 next year, slightly changed from last week’s projection of R$ 1.77 to the dollar.


GDP expansion remains forecast at 7.6% for this year, and GDP growth is projected to be 4.5% in 2011, a projection that remains unchanged for the last 49 weeks.


Mercosur Signs Accord to Cut Tariffs

Brazil closes its stint in the rotating Mercosur presidency by obtaining a preferential tariff agreement with seven developing nations: India, Indonesia, South Korea, Egypt, Morocco, and Cuba.  Algeria and Iran also participated in the talks and may yet ratify the treaty as well.  The negotiations were completed last Thursday at the WTO offices in Geneva and the document is to be signed next month at the Mercosur summit to be held at the Iguazu Falls on the Brazil / Argentina border.  The treaty provides for a 20% reduction in tariffs on 70% of trade items between Mercosur and the other signatories.  The Mercosur trade bloc comprises Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.


India imported US$ 2.775 billion of merchandise from Brazil in the first 9 months of this year.  Exports to South Korea will reach US$ 3 billion this year and are set to increase, and Korean trade continues to climb as the nation sells automobiles in the Brazilian market.


The accord is seen as having wider implications because countries such as Inda and Egypt also have important alliances with other nations in their regions, opening the possibility of downstream expansion of trade relations.  We note that Brazil has pushed back hard against trade policy of their erstwhile BFF, China, accusing the Chinese of unfair trade practices.  This may be part of a broader move to protect Brazilian export growth by diversifying their overseas target markets away from the “one-stop-selling” model.


Moshe Silver

Managing Director/Chief Compliance Officer


Brazilian Equities: Broken On TRADE, Bullish on TREND - 1

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