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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 17, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or -0.11% downside to 1177 and 0.99% upside to 1190.  Equity futures are trading higher tracking a rebound in European equities. The developments on the Irish debt situation are being closely watched, with a joint European-IMF team expected to visit Ireland to prepare for a bailout.

In important economic data today: October CPI, October Housing Starts and October Building Permits.

  • Bob Evans Farms (BOBE) boosted year oper. income forecast to $108m-$112m (ex $13.9m charge) from $105m-$110m
  • Comerica (CMA) boosted dividend to 10c-shr from 5c-shr, said it will buy back up to 12.6m shrs
  • CVR Energy (CVI) said shareholders including affiliates of Goldman, Kelso will sell 15m shares in secondary offering
  • Giant Interactive (GA) reported 3Q rev. $50.6m vs est. $50.9m
  • Human Genome Sciences (HGSI), along with GlaxoSmithKline, won FDA advisory panel backing to sell Benlysta lupus drug
  • Woodward Governor (WGOV) forecast 2011 sales $1.55b-$1.65b, vs est. $1.53b

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (1.59%), S&P (1.62%), Nasdaq (1.75%), Russell 2000 (2.03%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow (0.85%), S&P (0.42%)%, Nasdaq (1.50%), Russell (2.03%)
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +2.18%, S&P +3.25%, Nasdaq +4.27%, Russell +4.31%;
  • Year-to-date: Dow +5.71%, S&P +5.67%, Nasdaq +8.84%, Russell +12.78%
  • Sector Performance: Materials (2.16%), Energy (1.87%), Tech (1.81%), Financials (1.67%), Industrials (1.61%), Consumer Disc (1.36%), Healthcare (1.45%), Utilities (1.16%), Consumer Spls (1.11%).
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Urban Outfitters +11.73%, Mattel +3.27% and Honeywell +1.79%/First Solar -6.42%, Jacobs Engn -5.04% and Kimco Realty -5.03%.

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -2249 (-2604)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1354.34 (+53.99%)
  • VIX: - 22.58 +11.78% - YTD PERFORMANCE - (+4.15%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.80 from 1.46 +23.24%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 15.35 -0.304 (-1.943%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.15% +0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.34 from 2.39

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 296.22 -3.20%
  • Oil: 82.34 -2.97% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 373.10 -4.93% - BULLISH
  • GOLD: 1,337.35 -2.51% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3486 -0.94% - BEARISH
  • DOLLAR: 79.210 +0.88%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: (0.13%); DAX +0.37%; CAC 40 +0.47%
  • Shares are trading slightly positive following a weak open and a poor show yesterday and as the market waits for a resolution to Ireland’s debt situation.
  • Further support comes from GlaxoSmithKline after it found support for its key lupus drug.
  • Technology, banks and Insurance sectors are among the gainers today, while Telcos, Retail sectors are weak.
  • UK Sept ILO unemployment +7.7% vs consensus +7.7% and prior +7.7%
  • UK Oct claimant count (3.7K) vs cons. (5.0K)
  • BoE minutes: 7 MPC members voted for unchanged policy In Nov
  • Posen voted for £50B more QE, Sentance voted for 25bps rate hike

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei +0.15%; Hang Seng (2.0%); Shanghai Composite (1.97%)
  • Asian markets apart from Japan followed the US and Europe down today.
  • Resource shares fell on lower commodity prices.
  • Japan fell at the start of the day, but a weaker yen encouraged dip buying and allowed the market to finish barely up. Megabanks outperformed the market.
  • South Korea darted in and out of positive territory but ended down on the day.  Shipbuilders gained after falling yesterday.
  • Resource shares led Australia lower by (1.62%).  Qantas fell 2% as another airplane turned around in midflight, this time after a problem with its electrical system.
  • Blue chips extended China’s recent decline on a report that Premier Wen Jiabao said the government is preparing steps to fight inflation.
  • Hong Kong fell again on fears of higher interest rates in China.
  • Singapore and Indonesia were closed for Hari Raya Haji and Idul Adha, respecitvely.
  • Japan September revised composite index of coincident economic indicators (1.2 points) m/m to 102.1 vs preliminary (1.3 points) m/m.


Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER