Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Director of Research Daryl Jones.
This morning is yet another opportunity for error in human judgement with August Non-Farm Payrolls coming out at 8:30am ET. Consensus is at +725K, a number which has been coming down over the past few weeks, and a deceleration from the prior reading of +943K.
Historically, these numbers have been very hard to predict with much precision. One reason we could see a disappointing number is that continuing claims, as highlighted in the attached chart of the day, are up or flat in this period, while in the prior period they came down by roughly 1MM.
But then again, this is a survey that is conducted in the week of the month with the 12th day in it, so the week of July 12th and August 12th. So, while investors may hang their hats on these numbers in the short term, the very timing and survey-based nature may inherently be more prone to inaccuracies then we realize.