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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 15, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or -0.93% downside to 1188 and 0.98% upside to 1211.  Equity futures are trading little changed to fair value in the wake of last week's post QE2 pull back. Today we have October Retail Sales and September Business Inventories in what will be a busy week with Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at the ECB conference on Friday looking like a key highlight.

  • Aastrom Biosciences Inc. (ASTM) filed $75m mixed securities shelf
  • Accelrys (ACCL) said it will buy back as much as $6m in shares by March 31
  • Fortune Brands (FO) may work on a breakup plan with Pershing Square Capital Management, WSJ reported Nov. 12
  • Naugatuck Valley Financial (NVSL) and Southern Connecticut Bancorp (SSE US) mutually agreed to terminate merger deal
  • Novartis (NVS) may rise to $65 by 2013 as new drug portfolio overcomes expiration of existing patents, Barron’s says
  • Vale (VALE) may rise to the mid-$40s due to economic growth in China, increasing commodity prices, Barron’s reported

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.80%), S&P (1.18%), Nasdaq (1.46%), Russell (1.68%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow +0.67%, S&P +1.35%, Nasdaq +0.43%, Russell +2.26%;
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.75%, S&P +5.08%, Nasdaq +6.32%, Russell +6.38%;
  • Year-to-date: Dow +7.33%, S&P +7.54%, Nasdaq +10.98%, Russell +15.01%
  • Sector Performance: Consumer Staples (0.49%), Utilities (0.82%), Consumer Discretionary (1.04%), Industrials (1.17%), Healthcare (1.25%), Energy (1.47%), Tech (1.40%), Financials (1.65%), and Materials (2.23%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Fortune Brands +7.76%, NVIDIA +5.32% and Disney +5.27%/CF Industries -6.34%, DR Horton -5.42% and Office Depot -5.08%.

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE:1977 (-1108)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1013.04 (+6.69%)
  • VIX: 20.51 +10.57% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-4.94%) - BEARISH TREND
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.22 from 1.64 +25.42%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.67 0.710 (4.448%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.25 from 2.21

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 303.60 -3.57%
  • Oil: 84.88 -3.34% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 389.80 -3.26% - BULLISH
  • GOLD: 1,365.15 -2.89% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3691 +0.27% - BEARISH
  • DOLLAR: 78.082 -0.17%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: (0.33%); DAX: (0.08%); CAC 40: (0.22%)
  • The Irish Independent reported that Ireland is considering asking the EU for funds for its banks, avoiding State funding.
  • Mining shares were amongst leading fallers on economic growth concerns and a broadly stronger US dollar.
  • There were limited EPS results and no major regional economic data is scheduled today, with the focus on US retail sales later in the session.

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei +1.06%; Hang Seng (0.81%); Shanghai Composite +0.97%
  • Markets closed mixed.
  • Banks led Japan higher, as the market was boosted by a weaker yen and stronger-than-expected 3Q10 economic growth.
  • Hong Kong declined even though it got some support from mixed outcomes for property stocks.
  • China closed +1.0% higher reversing earlier losses after bank shares rallied late in the session
  • Japan Q3 real GDP +0.9% seq vs +0.6% survey. Annualized real Q3 GDP +3.9% y/y vs survey +2.5%. September revised industrial output (1.6%) m/m vs (1.9%) initial reading and (0.5%) seq.  September capacity utilization index (1.1%) m/m vs (0.9%) seq.

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER